
The AfD’s victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election marks another significant shift in Germany’s political landscape. With 43.8% of the vote, the party became by far the strongest political force in the state, falling only three seats short of an absolute majority. For IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer, however, the most important result is not the AfD’s score, but the CDU’s defeat.
“The single most important number for me is not the high result of the AfD. It is the low result for the CDU,” Schäffer said in an interview with TVP World.
The CDU received only 17.2% of the vote, a dramatic decline from its previous result. The outcome challenges the party’s traditional position as Germany’s dominant centre-right force. Schäffer argues that the result also demonstrates the limits of attempts to compete with the AfD by adopting elements of its rhetoric.
“If you want the original, you do not go to the copy,” Schäffer noted, pointing to the growing difficulty for the CDU of distinguishing itself from the AfD while maintaining its own political profile.
The election also highlights the changing nature of the AfD itself. According to Schäffer, the party can no longer be understood primarily through the traditional image of a marginal far-right street movement.
“It is no longer skinheads in boots marching and shouting things that are forbidden by the Constitution in Germany,” Schäffer said. “We have friendly faces in the first row and then criminals and people that are linked to, for instance, the Identitarian movement in the second row.”
This professionalisation and mainstreaming of the AfD increases its potential appeal beyond its traditional far-right electorate. At the same time, the party’s ideological orientation remains significant. The AfD’s political environment includes established links to the broader right-wing extremist milieu, while its positions on migration, European integration, Russia and support for Ukraine distinguish it fundamentally from Germany’s democratic centre.
The result therefore raises a question that extends beyond Saxony-Anhalt: can the political model developed by the AfD in eastern Germany be transferred to the western German states?
Schäffer argues that there is no reason to assume that the party’s electoral success will remain geographically confined. The AfD is already led increasingly by politicians with western German backgrounds, while its professionalised public presentation makes it more accessible to voters outside the traditional far-right milieu.
At the same time, the election demonstrates that the AfD does not yet have a governing majority. With 39 of 83 seats, it remains dependent on support from other parties or individual members of the Landtag. Possible governing arrangements remain uncertain, including the possibility of minority government or a new election.
For Schäffer, however, the central challenge for Germany’s democratic parties goes beyond the immediate question of government formation.
“The other parties have to find answers to the topics that have been making the AfD strong,” he said.
Migration, economic insecurity and dissatisfaction with established political parties have created an electoral environment in which the AfD can continue to expand its support. Simply describing each successive result as a “wake up call” will not be sufficient.
The implications also extend beyond Germany. The AfD’s positions on Russia, Ukraine and European integration mean that its continued electoral rise is closely watched by Germany’s European partners.
The Saxony-Anhalt election is therefore not simply another state election. It is an indication of the continuing transformation of Germany’s party system and a warning that the political centre cannot rely on established electoral loyalties to contain the rise of the far right.
Watch the full interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oz-uxXDNmGE