Sebastian Schäffer on QNews: Ukraine’s resilience requires sustained European support

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Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), joined QNews’ In Focus to discuss recent developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and their wider implications for European security. 

The interview addressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Serbia, the changing geopolitical environment in the South Caucasus, insecurity in the Black Sea, attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the economic effects of the war inside Russia and beyond. 

On Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade, Schäffer argued that the meeting is unlikely to transform Serbia’s deep energy ties with Moscow immediately. Its significance lies primarily in the fact that two EU candidate countries are engaging directly at the highest political level. He stressed that Serbia will ultimately need to clarify whether it wishes to pursue closer integration with the European Union or retain a position of strategic dependence on Russia. 

Regarding the South Caucasus, Schäffer noted that Russia is no longer the region’s sole arbiter. Armenia’s changing political orientation and Azerbaijan’s efforts to maintain room for manoeuvre point to a more fragmented regional environment. At the same time, he cautioned against assuming that Russian influence has disappeared, noting Moscow’s continuing ability to exert influence, including in Georgia. 

Schäffer also emphasised that threats to shipping in the Black Sea have global consequences. Disruptions to trade routes, particularly for agricultural exports, affect food security and economic stability well beyond the immediate theatre of war, including in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. 

Addressing Ukraine’s preparations for the coming winter, he highlighted the growing pressure created by Russian attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated resilience and an ability to repair damaged infrastructure, but the scale and timing of attacks pose a severe challenge. The speed with which energy facilities can be rebuilt and protected will be decisive in the months ahead. 

The discussion further considered Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics and commercial infrastructure. Schäffer described these as part of Ukraine’s effort to show that Russia’s war is not without consequences for the Russian economy and population. While such strikes are unlikely to decide the war on their own, they demonstrate that Russian rear areas are no longer entirely insulated from its effects. 

On the effects of disrupted grain exports, Schäffer argued that EU emergency support can mitigate some of the immediate pressure on Ukrainian farmers but cannot replace predictable and secure export routes. A sustained reduction in Ukrainian agricultural exports would risk further food insecurity and instability in vulnerable regions. 

Finally, Schäffer underlined that sustained Western support remains central to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and to any credible prospect of negotiations. He stressed that European security, economic stability and humanitarian considerations are directly connected to the outcome of the war. 

The whole interview can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Qa7RLpMfboc&ra=m

Sebastian Schäffer on Russia’s fuel crisis, Patriot missiles and the risk of a provocation against Poland – Interview with War & Politics 24

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In conversation with Maxym Krapivnyy on the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer assessed the latest statements from the Kremlin and their implications for Ukraine and European security. 

The discussion focused on Russia’s growing frustration with the course of the war, the emerging fuel crisis inside the country and the possibility of further hybrid and military escalation. 

Schäffer noted that Moscow’s increasing reliance on strikes against civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities reflects a lack of progress on the battlefield rather than renewed strength. He argued that Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian supply lines and target refineres and other elements of the war economy has begun to bring the conflict home to the Russian population, even as the regime seeks to adapt and absorb these pressures. 

The interview also addressed the debate around a possible nationwide mobilization in Russia following this autumn’s parliamentary elections and the expected licensing of Patriot interceptor missiles for production in Ukraine. Schäffer warned that broader mobilization could temporarily shift momentum at the front but might also deepen domestic discontent with the Kremlin. At the same time, he underlined that robust air defence and credible security guarantees will be essential to deter future attacks, since agreements with the Russian Federation have repeatedly been violated by Moscow in the past. 

Looking beyond Ukraine, Schäffer highlighted the growing importance of hybrid tactics aimed at dividing the European Union and testing NATO’s resolve, including the possibility of armed provocations against Poland designed to probe the responsiveness of Article 5. In this context, he stressed that Ukraine is defending far more than its own territory, arguing that sustained and adequate support for Kyiv remains central to European freedom and security. 

Watch the full interview on YouTube:

IDM Director Weighs In on Iran and Ukraine After NATO Summit Press Conference

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In an interview with Al-Qahera News on 8 July 2026, following the joint press conference of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump at the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), assessed the US administration’s approach to Iran and its implications for Ukraine, highlighting concerns over a lack of strategic clarity. 

Discussing Trump’s remarks at the summit, Schäffer pointed to broader inconsistencies in US foreign policy and questioned the administration’s long-term objectives, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He argued that recent strikes may not have achieved their stated goals and warned that continued uncertainty around Iran could further affect global economic stability, especially given Tehran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. 

Turning to Ukraine, Schäffer assessed the potential impact of additional US weapons deliveries following renewed Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. While Patriot air defence systems would strengthen Ukraine’s ability to protect civilians and infrastructure, he argued that long-range capabilities such as Tomahawk missiles could have greater strategic significance by enabling deeper strikes against military targets. 

Schäffer concluded by emphasizing the fundamental difference between Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself against aggression and Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. 

An excerpt of the interview is available here (in Arabic): https://youtube.com/shorts/XBqkTVmlM5M?si=eVRih_RZjhTwNS7S  

IDM Director discusses NATO summit and future of the war in Ukraine on QNews Egypt

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer returned to the programme In-Focus on QNews Egypt to discuss the upcoming NATO summit and its implications for European security as well as the war in Ukraine. In the interview, Schäffer addressed the evolving priorities of the Alliance, including continued support for Ukraine, deterrence and defence on NATO’s eastern flank, and the broader strategic context for Europe and the transatlantic partnership.  

Particular attention was paid to the tragic milestone of an estimated 2 million casualties resulting from Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, underlining the immense human suffering and long-term consequences of the conflict.  

Schäffer also provided an outlook on possible trajectories of the war and Western support, highlighting the importance of sustained political will, military assistance, and economic resilience. The conversation touched on scenarios for the coming months, the role of allied unity, and the challenges of managing escalation risks while maintaining robust support for Ukraine’s defence and sovereignty.  

The full interview is available online and can be viewed here:  

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on QNews In Focus: Ukraine’s Drone Offensive and the EU’s Strategic Crossroads

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on QNews’ political analysis programme In Focus on 19 June 2026 to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and their implications for Central Europe and European security architecture. 

Speaking from Vienna Schäffer assessed the strategic significance of Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow’s oil refineries. He argued that the strikes send a clear message: Ukraine is now capable of bringing the war to its aggressor and targeting Russia’s war economy, adding that the strikes may also signal to Central European partners that sustained support for Kyiv could bring a ceasefire agreement closer. 

On the question of Russia’s economic resilience, Schäffer pointed to a notable decline in GDP growth, from approximately 4.9% in 2024 to around 1% in 2025, and highlighted that defence spending now accounts for roughly 30% of the Russian state budget, placing increasing strain on the country’s sovereign wealth fund. Nevertheless, he cautioned that a breaking point in Russia’s war economy is unlikely before 2026 or even 2027. 

Addressing the prospects for peace negotiations, Schäffer was direct: he sees no genuine willingness from the Kremlin to engage in honest dialogue, and therefore no realistic basis for Ukraine to enter into peace talks at this stage. He also flagged a potentially significant development: Belarusian President Lukashenko’s reported appeal to Putin to end the war. A signal, he suggested, that even Moscow’s closest allies may be growing weary of the conflict. 

On European unity, Schäffer identified fragmentation among EU member states as the single most consequential strategic mistake the bloc is currently making. He stressed the importance of reinforcing the EU’s eastern flank, running from the Baltic Sea through the Danube Region to the Black Sea, as an essential pillar of regional and continental security. 

📺 Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/2rSEeMMW9zw 

IDM Director Schäffer on Whether Trump’s Iran Focus Is Pushing Ukraine Down the Agenda 

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IDM Director Schäffer on Whether Trump’s Iran Focus Is Pushing Ukraine Down the Agenda  

In a new episode of FO° Talks, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer joins host Rohan Khattar Singh to discuss whether the Trump administration’s growing focus on the war with Iran is sidelining support for Ukraine. The conversation takes place against the backdrop of a full‑scale Russian war that has entered its fifth year, while political attention in Washington is increasingly absorbed by the confrontation with Iran and its regional consequences. 

Schäffer outlines how the Iran war is consuming US diplomatic and military bandwidth, from congressional debates to strategic planning, and how this shift risks turning Ukraine into a lower‑priority theatre in American foreign policy. He notes that ongoing discussions on Ukraine’s future, including tentative peace initiatives and security guarantees, have lost visibility as the White House and Congress concentrate on managing the crisis around Iran. This development raises concerns in European capitals about the durability of transatlantic commitment to Ukraine and the credibility of NATO’s deterrence posture on its eastern flank. 

The FO° Talks episode also looks at how Europe and Ukraine are responding to a more distracted United States. Schäffer stresses that European support for Kyiv is increasingly framed as a core investment in Europe’s own security and in the stability of its wider neighbourhood, from the Black Sea to the Western Balkans. In this context, the discussion links the war in Ukraine and the Iran crisis to broader debates on European strategic autonomy, energy vulnerability and the EU’s capacity to act as a reliable security and diplomatic actor in a more volatile international environment. 

The full FO° Talks conversation “Has the Trump Administration Abandoned Ukraine Due to the Iran War?” is available here:  https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/fo-talks-has-the-trump-administration-abandoned-ukraine-due-to-the-iran-war/ 

Through War, Resilience: Impressions from a Country Shaping Europe’s Future

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Through War, Resilience: Impressions from a Country Shaping Europe’s Future 

As of 11 June 2026, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now lasted longer than the First World War.  

To mark this significant moment, the IDM invites you to watch its special series, “Through War, Resilience: Impressions from a Country Shaping Europe’s Future.” The seven episodes follow IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on his journey through Ukraine, witnessing the realities of war and the strength of a society that continues to stand. 

This trip offers a record of the resilience and determination of Ukrainians fighting a war whose consequences will shape the future of Europe for generations. 

Through the train windows: the journey from Vienna to Kyiv 

Taking the train from Vienna to Kyiv is an experience that stays with you. Ukraine remains connected to Europe, even in the middle of a war. It is a long journey, but also a remarkably ordinary one in many ways. What makes this route different is whatinterrupts the ordinary: air raid alerts that remind you where you are heading to and what is happening. 

The ever-changing face of Kyiv 

Kyiv is one of those cities that does not leave you neutral. Walking through it means walking through layers of history that still very present: the Maidan, where people took the streets to fight for Ukraine’s European future, and countless other places thatreflect both the trauma and the determination of this city. What struck most were the reminders of loss alongside signs of everyday life carrying on: it seems that Kyiv is grieving and building at the same time. That tension is something you cannot fullyunderstand until you see it in person. 

A new normality amid extraordinary circumstances  

One of the most important things we wanted to convey from this trip is what daily life in Ukraine actually looks like. From the outside, it is easy to imagine a country paralysed by war. The reality is more complex, and in some ways more unsettling. Curfews,shelter routines, and constant awareness of security risks have become part of everyday life across most of the country. And yet people continue to work, study, make plans or watch a football match. What stays with us is this duality: the coexistence of theordinary and the extraordinary.  

Witness to a fight for Europe’s future 

Travelling between Kyiv and Lviv, you are confronted with things that are hard to look at and impossible to ignore. The evidence of Russia’s aggression is not abstract here: it is in the landscape, in the towns you pass through, in the stories people tell you alongthe way. But so is resilience. Sebastian has been to Ukraine many times, and every visit reinforces the same conviction: what is happening here is not only about Ukraine. It is shaping the future of Europe.  

A painful but necessary walk of remembrance 

There are places between Kyiv and Lviv where the ashes of history are still burning, where today’s war connects to older stories of resistance, survival, and European sentiment. These moments of historical depth matter, not as an escape from the present, but as a way of making sense of it. Ukraine is not just fighting for its territory. It is fighting for the idea that a country can choose its own future. That is a deeply European idea, and one Europeans should take for granted.  

Continuing under air raid alarms 

One thing that is difficult to convey from a distance is what it means to live with air raid alarms as part of everyday life. During Sebastian’s time in Ukraine, he observed and experienced how people navigate this: checking Telegram channels for real-time updates, making quick decisions about risk, carrying on when it is possible or heading to the nearest shelter when it isn’t. There is a kind of practised calm that develops. It is both impressive and sobering. Life continues in Ukraine, but it continues underconditions that most of us in Western Europe have never had to imagine for ourselves. 

Heavy backpack, heavy heart: time to go back to Vienna 

Sebastian’s last stop before heading back to Vienna was the Ivan Franko National University in Lviv, where I gave a lecture. It felt like a fitting end to the trip, a reminder that Ukrainian academic and civic life continue despite everything. Looking back on theweek, what stays with us is not one particular moment or conversation. It is the cumulative weight of it all: the people Sebastian met, the things he saw, the gap between how Ukraine is often discussed in European capitals and what it actually feels like on theground. IDM will keep engaging with Ukraine directly, because there is no substitute for showing up. 

An IDM series presented by Sebastian Schäffer, supported by Ninon Bouteloup, Elena Marko, and Amélie Petiaux.  

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on QNews Think Tank: No Just Peace in Sight, But Ukraine Must Remain at the Table

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer joined the QNews programme Think Tank to discuss the latest developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine, appearing alongside Peter Dickinson, Ukraine Editor at the Atlantic Council. 

On President Zelensky’s offer of direct talks with Putin, Schäffer noted that while the gesture strategically plays on Putin’s insecurities, with the Russian president being, in Schäffer’s words, “too afraid to go anywhere else than Moscow,” a just peace remains far from the horizon. Any genuine peaceprocess would need to address reparations for damages inflicted on Ukraine and accountability for war crimes. A ceasefire discussion may be possible; justice is another matter entirely. 

On Hungary’s shifted position under new leadership, Schäffer welcomed the dropped veto as a positive signal, but cautioned against talk of fast-tracking EU accession. With roughly 1,800 remaining veto points built into the accession process, removing one obstacle is only the beginning. He pointedto the EU summit on 16 June as the next meaningful milestone and a potential opening of formal negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. 

Regarding Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries on the Baltic coast near St. Petersburg, Schäffer framed these not primarily through the lens of global oil prices, but as a necessary response to over 12 years of Russian aggression and a demonstration of Ukraine’sexpanding long-range capabilities. He emphasised that not a single day in 2026 has passed without Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. 

On NATO’s eastern flank and Italy’s deployment of fighter jets to Romania following drone strikes on the city of Galați, Schäffer argued that strengthening Ukraine’s air defences is itself the most effective way to protect NATO territory. He expressed concern that some voices frame the protection ofRomanian lives as coming at the expense of Ukrainian ones. “We need to protect Ukrainian lives, and by extension we are also protecting NATO territory.” 

Closing the programme, both guests were asked for a yes or no on peace talks within six months. Schäffer’s answer: “Unfortunately, I agree. I don’t see it.” 

Watch the full discussion here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPdCTY5RF1o 

Sebastian Schäffer on Russian propaganda and the possibility of a coup in the Kremlin – Interview with War & Politics 24

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In conversation with the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer was asked for his assessment of the latest propaganda statements from the Kremlin. What does Russia’s public announcement that it will withdraw from trilateral negotiations on the war of aggression in Ukraine mean, given that these negotiations have so far served the Kremlin’s interests? And what does the changed tone, even within Russia, reveal about the state of the regime? 

In the interview, Schäffer emphasised that statements from the Kremlin must always be viewed critically and within the specific context of their target audience – historically, he noted, discrepancies between rhetoric and actual actions have often been evident in the context of Kremlin propaganda. Schäffer also pointed out that Russia’s threats must always be viewed within the context of demonstrations of power in both domestic and foreign policy. So whilst nuclear threats and warnings of attacks on the militaryparade on 9 May are intended to project strength domestically, according to Schäffer, these could also be interpreted in foreign policy terms as a sign of growing weakness and a loss of control. Regarding the question of a possible coup in the Kremlin, Schäffer says that there are certainly different factions within the Kremlin who are already considering what a post-Putin Russia might look like – which does not necessarily mean that a coup is imminent, but simply that the possibility of a post-Putin Russia iscoming into focus. On the question of Sergei Shoigu’s role, Schäffer does suggest the possibility of a potential betrayal of Putin in order to save himself. At the same time, however, Schäffer emphasised that it is difficult to look inside the Kremlin from theoutside, and in doing so also referred to the concept of kremlinology. 

  

Watch the full video online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkn-iSq037k 

Sebastian Schäffer on Ukraine, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz — Interview with Qnews

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer spoke with Cairo-based Qnews’ programme In Focus on the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US “Operation Freedom” initiative, joining the programme from Vienna shortly after returning from a visit to Ukraine. 

Schäffer cautioned against reading Ukraine’s targeting of Baltic Sea oil ports as a direct reaction to events in the Gulf. The strategy, he argued, predates the Hormuz closure and is driven by a consistent logic: disrupting the revenue flows that sustain Russia’s war effort. With oil prices rising sharply following the closure, the stakes of that strategy have only grown. And the root cause, Schäffer stressed, remains clear: had Russia not invaded Ukraine, none of this would be happening. 

On the US response, Schäffer expressed scepticism toward the humanitarian framing of “Operation Freedom,” pointing to a broader pattern in which the Trump administration generatesinstability before positioning itself as the solution. He noted that Tehran’s wariness of the growing US military presence in the region is, in that context, geopolitically understandable. 

▶ Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/jbQDp0zqtwU