Sebastian Schäffer on Ukraine, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz — Interview with Qnews

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer spoke with Cairo-based Qnews’ programme In Focus on the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US “Operation Freedom” initiative, joining the programme from Vienna shortly after returning from a visit to Ukraine. 

Schäffer cautioned against reading Ukraine’s targeting of Baltic Sea oil ports as a direct reaction to events in the Gulf. The strategy, he argued, predates the Hormuz closure and is driven by a consistent logic: disrupting the revenue flows that sustain Russia’s war effort. With oil prices rising sharply following the closure, the stakes of that strategy have only grown. And the root cause, Schäffer stressed, remains clear: had Russia not invaded Ukraine, none of this would be happening. 

On the US response, Schäffer expressed scepticism toward the humanitarian framing of “Operation Freedom,” pointing to a broader pattern in which the Trump administration generatesinstability before positioning itself as the solution. He noted that Tehran’s wariness of the growing US military presence in the region is, in that context, geopolitically understandable. 

▶ Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/jbQDp0zqtwU 

Meeting with Igor Kogut at IDM

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On 16 March 2026, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer met with Igor Kogut at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) to discuss ongoing cooperation, including the study UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT IN WARTIME: KEY TENDENCIES AND CHALLENGES, and explore further opportunities for collaboration. The meeting also touched upon plans for Schäffer’s upcoming visit to Kyiv at the end of April, where these joint initiatives will be continued.

Shaping the future of EU enlargement: project concludes with final event in Budapest

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The concluding event of the project ‘Central Europe and Future EU Enlargement‘ took place from 10–11 March in Budapest.

During a roundtable discussion with an extended consortium on the premises of the Central European University, partners shared best practices and talked about how to continue the cooperation beyond the scope of the project.

The final presentation of results and panel discussion was part of the Budapest Balkans Forum, which was organised by our project partner the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Research Associate Rebecca Thorne gave an overview of the project activities and highlighted some recommendations from the policy papers, before the panellists took the stage for a discussion on enlargement momentum. The panel featured Krševan Antun Dujmović, expert advisor at the Institute for Development and International Relations; Filip Ilankovic, Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs; Stevan Kandic, Advisor to the Vice-President of the Parliament of Montenegro; and Grigorij Meseznikov, President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO). The discussion was moderated by IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer.

Thank you to the International Visegrad Fund for their support as well as to all partners for the excellent cooperation: Association for International Affairs (Czechia), Europeum (Czechia), Institute of Public Affairs (Poland), Institute for Public Affairs (Slovakia), Albanian Network for Rural Development, Institute for European Policies and Reforms (Moldova), European Policy Centre (Serbia), Ukrainian Institute for International Politics, Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism’.