IDM Director for Alghad TV: US Pressure, European Divisions, and the Risk of Imposed Peace

/in , , /by

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer discussed the state of Ukraine-Russia negotiations on Alghad TV, focusing on the impact of recent US pressure to accelerate a deal and the resulting implications for Europe. 

Washington’s push has coincided with limited movement, including a prisoner-of-war exchange following talks in Abu Dhabi. However, Russian demands for territorial concessions remain incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution and would require public ratification. At the same time, renewed attacks on civilian infrastructure underline the fragility of the situation and the risks of premature conclusions. 

A sustainable peace remains unlikely without continued US engagement. European states supporting Ukraine are not in a position to compensate individually for a significant reduction in American support. This increases the importance of European unity, which could still generate political and economic leverage if member states act together. 

Internal divisions within the European Union complicate this task. Hungary has aligned itself closely with Washington’s current approach, while other member states emphasise the preservation of a rule-based European security order. Germany and France, in particular, stress that borders cannot be changed through the use of force, a core principle underpinning post-war stability in Europe. The United Kingdom also contributes additional perspectives, particularly on security guarantees. 

Peace arrangements imposed without Ukrainian consent risk entrenching long-term instability rather than ending hostilities. Such outcomes would have far-reaching consequences for European security, economic exchange, and the broader geopolitical environment. 

Full video (Arabic):
🔗 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0hxA54Z3EHc 

IDM Director for AzerNews: Moldova’s unification debate reflects security-driven realism, not imminent merger

/in , , , /by

Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), offers a nuanced analysis of Moldova’s unfolding debate on potential reunification with Romania in a new piece for AzerNews. What was once framed largely in historical or cultural terms has shifted into a security calculus under intensifying geopolitical pressure.  

President Maia Sandu’s recent statement that she would vote in favour of unification in a hypothetical referendum is notable not for its immediacy but for its reframing of reunification as a possible contingency response to Russian pressure. Even so, broad public support on both sides of the Prut remains below levels necessary for a binding referendum, and Moldova’s strategictrajectory continues to prioritise EU integration as a sovereign state.  

A core structural constraint is the unresolved frozen conflict in Transnistria. Because NATO customarily avoids incorporating unresolved territorial disputes involving Russian forces, any formal merger would likely require Transnistria’s legal exclusion, complicating both legal and political feasibility. In this context, Schäffer highlights the growing relevance of the EU’s mutual assistanceclause under Article 42(7) as a credible security backstop, even as NATO’s collective defence framework remains central to broader European security discussions.  

Schäffer also notes the political and legal complexities of territorial arrangements, the incentives sustaining the status quo in the Transnistrian economy, and the ways Moscow is likely tointerpret unification as a political setback rather than a direct casus belli, with hybrid pressure remaining the most plausible tool of influence.  

Ultimately, while the renewed unification debate signals a shift in strategic thinking, it does not suggest that political conditions for a merger are in place. Moldova’s focus remains on strengthening its sovereignty through EU integration and navigating a challenging security environment. 

The full analysis is available on AzerNews 

Europas Zukunft: IDM-Direktor Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger-Podcast

/in , , , /by

Sebastian Schäffer, Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM), spricht in einem aktuellen Podcast mit Gunther Fehlinger über zentrale Herausforderungen und Perspektiven für Europas Zukunft in einem komplexen geopolitischen Umfeld. Das Gespräch richtet sich an ein breites Publikum, das sich für die Entwicklung der Europäischen Union, die EU-Erweiterung und regionale Stabilität interessiert. 

Schäffer betont die Bedeutung strategischer Partnerschaften innerhalb Europas und mit den östlichen Nachbarstaaten und analysiert aktuelle Fragen der EU- und NATO-Erweiterung, institutionelle Reformen sowie die Rolle des Donauraums als Brückenkopf zwischen West und Ost. Dabei diskutiert er, welche strukturellen Anpassungen die Union braucht, um langfristig Stabilität, demokratische Resilienz und nachhaltiges Wachstum zu sichern. 

Auf Basis seiner langjährigen Expertise zur europäischen Integration, EU-Erweiterung und zur politischen Dynamik im Donauraum ordnet Schäffer aktuelle Entwicklungen vor dem Hintergrund globaler Machtverschiebungen ein. Er zeigt, warum eine glaubwürdige Erweiterungsperspektive für Ukraine, Republik Moldau und den Westbalkan sowie mehr strategische Kohärenz entscheidend für die Zukunftsfähigkeit Europas sind 

Zum Anhören und Anschauen: 

▶️ YouTube: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM) 
🎧 Spotify: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger Podcast 

Schäffer for Al-Quahera News: Sustainable peace requires robust security guarantees

/in , , /by
Print

In a live interview with Al-Qahera News, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer argued that a sustainable peace in Ukraine cannot be reduced to a short-term ceasefire. Instead, it must be anchored in robust and credible security guaranteesdesigned to prevent renewed aggression.

Schäffer stressed that continued and reliable funding for Ukraine’s defence forces remains indispensable if any future agreement is to endure. He referred to recent discussions hosted by the German federal government in Berlin, where long-term security arrangements and burden-sharing among partners were discussed.

A central concern raised in the interview was the asymmetry between strong U.S. pressure for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a genuine peace, contrasted with serious doubts about whether the Russian Federation is prepared to do the same. Schäffer warned that negotiations risk stagnation as long as Moscow maintains maximalist demands, including calls for Ukraine to cede territory, in some cases territory Russia does not even fully control.

This assessment was reinforced by Dr. Maksym Yali, Kyiv-based professor of international relations, who underlined that such territorial concessions are incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution, making agreement on these terms legally and politically impossible.

Schäffer also emphasized the decisive role Europe will have to play, particularly the European Union, not only in Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU integration but also in shaping and sustaining a future security framework. Among the options discussed were European contributions on the ground to help guarantee any eventual peace agreement.

Without credible security guarantees, Schäffer concluded, hostilities would merely be paused, not ended.

FO° Talks with IDM Director: Sebastian Schäffer Discusses Scenarios for Ukraine and the Strategic Outlook for Europe

/in , , /by
Drucken

Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), was invited back to FO° Talks for a timely discussion with host Rohan Khattar Singh. The conversation took place amid renewed public debate about potential “peace proposals” for Ukraine and heightened speculation following Moscow’s latest demands. As Schäffer emphasised, these statements should not be mistaken for readiness to negotiate but rather understood as an attempt to influence political discourse in Europe and the United States. 

The talk highlighted that the proposals currently circulating go well beyond ceasefire arrangements. They include expectations for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories and the formal recognition of altered borders. Such ideas, if pursued, would challenge the established principles of the European security order and risk normalising the use of force to achieve political objectives. 

During the interview, Schäffer outlined three plausible scenarios for how the war may evolve in the coming years. The first is a frozen conflict, in which large-scale hostilities subside but the risk of renewed fighting remains high. The second is a prolonged war, extending the insecurity and strategic pressure Europe has faced since 2022. The third scenario — Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders — would offer a path to lasting stability, yet under the current balance of forces, Schäffer assesses this outcome as “very unlikely.” 

Regardless of which scenario proves most accurate, Schäffer stressed that Europe must prepare for sustained instability. The next five to ten years, he argued, are likely to be marked by continued threats, uncertainty and political tension, both within the region and in the broader European security landscape. He cautioned that any settlement based on territorial concessions would not resolve the conflict but risk legitimising aggression and setting a dangerous precedent for the continent. 

The full FO° Talks discussion is available here. 

Sebastian Schäffer on Asharq News: “A rushed agreement would endanger Ukraine and Europe alike” 

/in , , /by
Print

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on Asharq News to comment on recent statements suggesting that a peace agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine is imminent. Schäffer urged caution, noting that the unresolved issues, particularly the situation in the Donbas and control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, are fundamental to Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term security. 

He emphasised that credible security guarantees for Ukraine remain unclear, especially against the backdrop of rapidly shifting signals from Washington. Schäffer also criticised the lack of unity within the European Union, where governments in Hungary and Slovakia continue to undermine collective efforts on military assistance, financial support, and the release of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction, which has lately added Belgium to the club of countries hesitating to further help Ukraine. 

According to Schäffer, these divisions risk encouraging the Kremlin to increase pressure on Kyiv, assuming that Western cohesion can be easily broken. He stressed that the consequences extend far beyond Ukraine itself: “This is about the future of the entire European security architecture. A bad deal or forced concessions would fundamentally reshape the continent’s stability.” 

Schäffer called for coordinated action among EU member states and international partners, including Canada, Japan, and other like-minded actors, to prevent any agreement that weakens Ukraine or compromises Europe’s long-term security interests. 

Watch the full interview (in Arabic) here: ضعف الاتحاد الأوروبي يعرقل جهود سلام أوكرانيا | NOW الشرق

IDM Director for Al-Qahera News on “peace negotiations” for Ukraine 

/in , , /by
Print

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer commented for Cairo-based broadcaster Al-Qahera News on the recent secretive talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff on a potential ceasefire plan for Ukraine. In the interview, he stressed that these negotiations are being conducted without direct Ukrainian participation and underlined the principle that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine.  

Schäffer warned that any agreement reached over Kyiv’s head risks undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic legitimacy, especially if it pressures Ukraine into territorial or military concessions that would reward Russian aggression. He highlighted that such a precedent would be dangerous for smaller states more broadly, signalling that great powers can unilaterally redraw borders at their expense.  

At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing importance of robust and predictable support from the European Union and other partners, noting that debates in Washington and European capitals over military aid and security guarantees will decisively shape Kyiv’s room for manoeuvre. For any ceasefire to be credible and sustainable, he argued, Ukraine needs strong, long-term security guarantees and continued political, military and financial backing from its partners. 

Short clip: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/_upFCfxt2ik?si=jh4SgNqIdEdAVLbw 

Full interview: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zx7yDySipWE 

Sebastian Schäffer for Fair Observer on Ukraine’s new defence letter of intent and the impact on European security

/in , , /by
Print

In a recent interview for Fair Observer, Sebastian Schäffer, IDM Director, discussed the new defence letter of intent signed by Ukraine for 100 Rafale jets from France and 150 Gripen jets from Sweden. Beyond providing weapons that meet Ukraine’s current needs, these agreements send two positive signals for the future. On the one hand, this shows that France and Sweden believe in Ukraine’s capabilities to defend themselves and are willing to support the country in this process. On the other hand, these agreements illustrate potential cross-border cooperation in defence matters – a positive sign for the future of European security. Sebastian Schäffer highlighted the need to turn into an interconnected defence cooperation, as this sector is still largely nationalised in Europe.

Unfortunately, this momentum for a new defence cooperation has been affected by the disclosure of a major corruption scandal, involving some of the closest associates of Zelenskyy. This scandal is particularly outrageous to the population because it affects vital sectors, such as education and health, which are already seriously threatened by Russian attacks.

Nevertheless, Sebastian Schäffer stressed that Ukraine remains a democratic country fighting corruption and that this scandal should not lead to a withdrawal in support for Ukraine.

You can find the full interview here: FO° Talks: Ukraine’s Rafale and Gripen Deals Overshadowed by Major Corruption Scandal

Ukrainians Work Toward Options for Post-War Justice

/in , , /by
Print

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer contributes a new article to The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor, examining how Ukrainians are preparing for post-war justice. The piece explores the country’s emerging approaches to accountability, reparations, citizenship reform, and collective memory — illustrating how legal and institutional groundwork is already being laid to ensure that any future peace will also be a just one. 

The Jamestown Foundation, recognised by On Think Tanks as one of the “100 Think Tanks to Watch” in 2025, is a leading voice in Eurasian policy analysis. Schäffer’s publication in this forum underlines IDM’s engagement in international discussions on democracy, accountability, and the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine. 

🔗 Read the full article here:
https://jamestown.org/program/ukrainians-work-toward-options-for-post-war-justice/ 

You might also be interested in:
👉 Without a just peace there is just peace — a related reflection by Sebastian Schäffer on justice and accountability as cornerstones of sustainable peace.