IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on QNews In Focus: Ukraine’s Drone Offensive and the EU’s Strategic Crossroads

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on QNews’ political analysis programme In Focus on 19 June 2026 to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and their implications for Central Europe and European security architecture. 

Speaking from Vienna Schäffer assessed the strategic significance of Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow’s oil refineries. He argued that the strikes send a clear message: Ukraine is now capable of bringing the war to its aggressor and targeting Russia’s war economy, adding that the strikes may also signal to Central European partners that sustained support for Kyiv could bring a ceasefire agreement closer. 

On the question of Russia’s economic resilience, Schäffer pointed to a notable decline in GDP growth, from approximately 4.9% in 2024 to around 1% in 2025, and highlighted that defence spending now accounts for roughly 30% of the Russian state budget, placing increasing strain on the country’s sovereign wealth fund. Nevertheless, he cautioned that a breaking point in Russia’s war economy is unlikely before 2026 or even 2027. 

Addressing the prospects for peace negotiations, Schäffer was direct: he sees no genuine willingness from the Kremlin to engage in honest dialogue, and therefore no realistic basis for Ukraine to enter into peace talks at this stage. He also flagged a potentially significant development: Belarusian President Lukashenko’s reported appeal to Putin to end the war. A signal, he suggested, that even Moscow’s closest allies may be growing weary of the conflict. 

On European unity, Schäffer identified fragmentation among EU member states as the single most consequential strategic mistake the bloc is currently making. He stressed the importance of reinforcing the EU’s eastern flank, running from the Baltic Sea through the Danube Region to the Black Sea, as an essential pillar of regional and continental security. 

📺 Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/2rSEeMMW9zw