In a recent episode of FO° Talks, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer joined host Rohan Khattar Singh to discuss the geopolitical ripple effects of the war involving Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The conversation focuses on how this new crisis is triggering a second major energy shock in Europe, just as the region is still grappling with the consequences of its break‑away from Russian oil and gas. 

Schäffer argues that the disruption of up to 20 percent of global oil flows is not only inflating energy prices but also strengthening Russia’s war economy, while simultaneously exposing Europe’s structural dependence on volatile energy corridors. He highlights how fears of renewed inflation and economic strain are now intersecting with unresolved questions about NATO’s cohesion and the durability of Europe’s strategic autonomy. 

The interview examines growing divisions within NATO, as shifting US priorities under a Trump‑led administration increasingly sideline Europe’s focus on the war in Ukraine. Schäffer underlines that while Washington treats Iran as a primary strategic confrontation, many European capitals remain preoccupied with Russia, hybrid threats and continental security, leading to a visible mismatch in threat hierarchies across the Alliance. 

Against this backdrop, Schäffer stresses the need for Europe to invest in diversified energy supplies, renewable capacity and more resilient supply‑chain architectures. He also calls for a clearer European “autonomy” script that does not simply react to US‑driven Middle East crises, but that actively shapes Europe’s own security and economic agenda in a multipolar environment. 

The full FO° Talks discussion is available here.