IDM Director for Al-Qahera News on “peace negotiations” for Ukraine 

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer commented for Cairo-based broadcaster Al-Qahera News on the recent secretive talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff on a potential ceasefire plan for Ukraine. In the interview, he stressed that these negotiations are being conducted without direct Ukrainian participation and underlined the principle that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine.  

Schäffer warned that any agreement reached over Kyiv’s head risks undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic legitimacy, especially if it pressures Ukraine into territorial or military concessions that would reward Russian aggression. He highlighted that such a precedent would be dangerous for smaller states more broadly, signalling that great powers can unilaterally redraw borders at their expense.  

At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing importance of robust and predictable support from the European Union and other partners, noting that debates in Washington and European capitals over military aid and security guarantees will decisively shape Kyiv’s room for manoeuvre. For any ceasefire to be credible and sustainable, he argued, Ukraine needs strong, long-term security guarantees and continued political, military and financial backing from its partners. 

Short clip: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/_upFCfxt2ik?si=jh4SgNqIdEdAVLbw 

Full interview: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zx7yDySipWE 

Sebastian Schäffer for Fair Observer on Ukraine’s new defence letter of intent and the impact on European security

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In a recent interview for Fair Observer, Sebastian Schäffer, IDM Director, discussed the new defence letter of intent signed by Ukraine for 100 Rafale jets from France and 150 Gripen jets from Sweden. Beyond providing weapons that meet Ukraine’s current needs, these agreements send two positive signals for the future. On the one hand, this shows that France and Sweden believe in Ukraine’s capabilities to defend themselves and are willing to support the country in this process. On the other hand, these agreements illustrate potential cross-border cooperation in defence matters – a positive sign for the future of European security. Sebastian Schäffer highlighted the need to turn into an interconnected defence cooperation, as this sector is still largely nationalised in Europe.

Unfortunately, this momentum for a new defence cooperation has been affected by the disclosure of a major corruption scandal, involving some of the closest associates of Zelenskyy. This scandal is particularly outrageous to the population because it affects vital sectors, such as education and health, which are already seriously threatened by Russian attacks.

Nevertheless, Sebastian Schäffer stressed that Ukraine remains a democratic country fighting corruption and that this scandal should not lead to a withdrawal in support for Ukraine.

You can find the full interview here: FO° Talks: Ukraine’s Rafale and Gripen Deals Overshadowed by Major Corruption Scandal

Ukrainians Work Toward Options for Post-War Justice

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer contributes a new article to The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor, examining how Ukrainians are preparing for post-war justice. The piece explores the country’s emerging approaches to accountability, reparations, citizenship reform, and collective memory — illustrating how legal and institutional groundwork is already being laid to ensure that any future peace will also be a just one. 

The Jamestown Foundation, recognised by On Think Tanks as one of the “100 Think Tanks to Watch” in 2025, is a leading voice in Eurasian policy analysis. Schäffer’s publication in this forum underlines IDM’s engagement in international discussions on democracy, accountability, and the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine. 

🔗 Read the full article here:
https://jamestown.org/program/ukrainians-work-toward-options-for-post-war-justice/ 

You might also be interested in:
👉 Without a just peace there is just peace — a related reflection by Sebastian Schäffer on justice and accountability as cornerstones of sustainable peace. 

Péter Techet für Denník N über eine neue Allianz zwischen Prag, Bratislava und Budapest

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Die slowakische Tageszeitung Denník N fragte Péter Techet über die Möglichkeit und die Gründe einer anti-ukrainischen Allianz zwischen Prag, Bratislava und Budapest. 

Der Artikel kann hier gelesen werden: https://dennikn.sk/4939485/orban-chce-s-ficom-a-babisom-vytvorit-blok-proti-ukrajine-nebude-to-fungovat-hovori-dzurinda-aj-duleba

IDM Melange with the Center for Environmental Initiatives Ecoaction

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On 29 October, the IDM team hosted an online meeting with Olexi Pasyuk (Executive director) and Maryna Tsymbaliuk (Climate Department Specialist) from the Center for Environmental Initiatives Ecoaction. This Ukrainian civil society organization advocates for energy efficiency, biodiversity protection, public transport development, sustainable agriculture and social resilience. Combining activism and expertise, Ecoaction works with Ukrainian decisions-makers and is also part of international networks such as CAN Europe.

During our exchange, we learned more about Ecoaction’s activities, such as recent campaigns and research they have conducted. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in Ukraine, Ecoaction has investigated the climate damage caused by Russian aggression, which does not only affect Ukraine but will also have consequences for the entire European continent and beyond. Looking ahead, they are planning a sustainable post-war reconstruction.

We also discussed the importance of facilitating exchange between Ukraine and Central Europe so that the countries that have already successfully joined the EU can share their experience and support the candidate’s accession process.

We look forward to future opportunities for collaboration!

How can the Weimar Triangle support Ukraine? M.Talik in Genshagen 

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Copyright: Rene Arnold

Stiftung Genshagen, together with ÖFZ/CFA and Ukrainian Prism, organized the Weimar Plus Roundtable, “Ukraine and the EU – Getting Ready for Accession” in the Genshagen Castle (Germany) on 16.-17. October.  Malwina Talik was among the speakers in the session on the potential of Weimar Triangle (Germany, France, and Poland) in support of Ukraine. She particularly emphasized the need for institutionalizing the format and providing structured support for civil society in Ukraine, for example, through funds similar to the Visegrad Fund, and outlined the steps necessary for the Weimar Triangle to play a meaningful role in this context. In her talk, she also shared key insights from the IDM Policy Paper, “The Weimar Triangle: Driver of Ukraine’s EU Integration & Security?”, which she co-authored with Sebastian Schäffer, Romain Le Quiniou, and Nadija Afanasieva. 

More information: https://www.stiftung-genshagen.de/veranstaltungen/veranstaltungen-2025/ed/ukraine-and-the-eu-getting-ready-for-accession/  

From autonomy to deterrence: IDM Director on ReArm Europe for Azernews

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ReArm Europe marks a decisive turn in the European Union’s security and industrial trajectory. In his recent interview with Azernews, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer outlines that the initiative, targeting €2 trillion in defence by 2030, signals a major step towards strategic autonomy. Schäffer emphasizes that success depends on real coordination among member states to avoid fragmented efforts and ensure genuine European capacity. While ReArm can strengthen Europe’s self-defence and reduce certain dependencies on external actors, NATO’s role — especially U.S. nuclear and intelligence guarantees — remains vital and irreplaceable in the near future. 

On Ukraine, Schäffer highlights Europe’s clear preparation for a long-term challenge rather than a quick peace. “Without a just peace, there will be just peace,” Schäffer warns, pointing to the necessity of solutions rooted in justice to prevent recurrent hostilities. The interview also discusses the complexities of de-risking from Chinese supply chains, emphasizing gradual shifts rather than immediate decoupling. Schäffer concludes that political leadership and unity are essential for making ReArm Europe more than a historic opportunity – a test of Europe’s resilience and strategic foresight. 

Read the whole interview here: https://www.azernews.az/analysis/247258.html 

Without a Just Peace, There Is Just Peace – Sebastian Schäffer

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In the latest op-ed on the IDM Blog, Sebastian Schäffer reflects on the debate about how to achieve peace in Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. While all parties and their supporters call for peace, their visions of what it should look like differ dramatically. Do we seek just peace in the sense of merely ending hostilities, or just peace in the sense of a fair and sustainable settlement? This is the central question the op-ed explores. 

“If accepting the temporary occupation of part of its territory is what ensures Ukraine’s survival as an independent sovereign state, then so be it,” said Czech President Petr Pavel to the BBC in August 2025. While his remarks caution against pressuring Kyiv to reconquer all territory at once, they also raise a more urgent question, especially after the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin: what kind of peace are we preparing for Ukraine and for Europe? 

International diplomacy often presents the word “peace” as the ultimate goal. . But for Ukraine, after more than a decade of Russian aggression culminating in the full-scale invasion of 2022, peace is not simply about ending violence. It is about ensuring that it does not lay the foundation for future atrocities. 

There is a difference between peace and a just peace. The former can be imposed; the latter must be earned. Unless justice is part of the post-war settlement, any peace agreement risks becoming a prelude to renewed conflict by rewarding aggression and silencing those who have suffered. 

The Legal Legacy of Lviv 

This is not a new argument. It is grounded in the intellectual and moral legacy of Lviv and whose jurists shaped international law as we know it today. 

Born within three years of one another – Hersch Lauterpacht (1897) and Raphael Lemkin (1900) – both studied law at the University of Lemberg/Lwów, which was back then part of Austria-Hungary and later the Polish Republic. They were shaped by the same legal traditions and the same brutal experiences of nationalism, displacement and genocide. Both became architects of a world in which peace would depend on justice, understood as an international rules based order, enshrined in what later would become the UN Charta. 

Lauterpacht introduced the concept of “crimes against humanity”, insisting that individuals – not just states – must be held accountable for atrocities. Lemkin, haunted by the extermination of his own family in the Holocaust, coined the term “genocide” and campaigned for its recognition as a distinct international crime. Their legacies live on in the Geneva Conventions, in the Rome Statute, and in today’s efforts to prosecute war crimes. 

But these were not merely legal innovations. They were moral imperatives born from Europe’s darkest hours and aimed at preventing their repetition. 

The Risk of Appeasement 

Today, the calls for a swift peace in Ukraine are growing louder. Some argue that the war has reached a stalemate and that compromise – perhaps involving territorial concessions or frozen conflict lines – might be the pragmatic path forward. 

But this line of thinking ignores a painful truth: a peace that leaves parts of Ukraine under foreign occupation, legitimizes mass deportations and erases war crimes is appeasement. And history has taught us the cost of appeasing violent authoritarianism. 

Such a settlement would not only betray Ukraine; it would ultimately dismantle the very foundations of the international legal order established after World War II. It would send a message to other aggressors that international norms are negotiable, that might makes right, and victims will not see justice. 

Ukraine is not simply defending its territory; it is defending the principle that law, not force, should govern the world. The concepts developed in Lviv by Lauterpacht and Lemkin demand to be more than historical footnotes. They must remain the foundation of peacebuilding today. 

Justice in the Voices of Witnesses 

This demand for justice is not limited to courtrooms or legal conferences. It echoes most powerfully through the testimonies of those whose lives have been shattered by Russia’s war. 

In Looking at Women Looking at War, the late Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina – who was posthumously awarded with the UK Orwell Prize for Political Writing – assembled essays, interviews and fragments documenting the lives and losses of Ukrainian women. These are not passive accounts. They are acts of resistance. Amelina and her contributors wrote not merely to remember, but to ensure that the world does not forget. 

Amelina herself was killed in a Russian missile attack in Kramatorsk in 2023, after retrieving a war crimes diary from fellow writer Volodymyr Vakulenko, abducted and murdered during occupation. Her work and her death remind us that peace must include truth, recognition and dignity. Anything less is silence. 

Europe’s responsibility and Ukraine’s moral leadership 

The European Union (EU) has shown extraordinary solidarity with Ukraine, from military aid to opening accession talks. But a just peace will require more than arms and infrastructure. It demands sustained support for accountability mechanisms, transitional justice and the voices of victims. 

The EU’s engagement on these fronts – through the documentation of war crimes, support for the International Criminal Court and dialogue on transitional justice – must remain central to Ukraine’s integration process. Ukraine is not just aspiring to join the EU; it is already defending European values, often more fiercely than some existing members. 

Peace must be built on this foundation. 

The choice ahead 

On 25 June 2025, Ukraine and the Council of Europe have signed an agreement for a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine to prosecute Russian leaders. The crime of aggression concerns the decision to launch armed force against another state in breach of the United Nations Charter. While the International Criminal Court (ICC) has jurisdiction to investigate war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide committed in Ukraine, it currently lacks the mandate to prosecute the crime of aggression in this context due to jurisdictional constraints. A Special Tribunal is therefore needed to address this legal gap. These twin developments underscore what Lviv’s legacy made clear: peace without justice is hollow. 

The effort to document atrocities, to build new legal frameworks, and to amplify voices like Amelina’s is not symbolic. It is the groundwork for lasting peace. The recent Trump–Putin meeting only reinforced this point. By framing peace as a deal between leaders rather than as a process rooted in justice and accountability, it is rewarding aggression and inviting further atrocities. The effort to document war crimes, to build new legal frameworks, and to amplify voices like Amelina’s is not symbolic. It is the groundwork for lasting peace.  

The foundations were laid in Lemberg, by Lauterpacht and Lemkin. They are being rebuilt in Kyiv, Bucha, Kharkiv and Lviv by those who continue to believe that justice is not the opposite of peace, but its precondition. 

Without a just peace, there is just peace – a temporary ceasefire in disguise, destined to erupt again. 

 

Sebastian Schäffer is director of the IDM.

European security guarantees for Ukraine in focus — IDM voices expert analysis

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In a recent appearance on AzerNews, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer delivered a focused expert analysis on two pivotal questions concerning Ukraine’s security:  

How can the U.S. and Europe ensure Russia will not launch further aggression against Ukraine? 

Schäffer proposed a “42.7 Ukraine Compact”, utilizing Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the EU’s mutual defence clause, as the core strategic framework. Key elements include:  

  • Planned, predictable deliveries of air and missile defences.  
  • Sharing of real-time intelligence and surveillance data from allied sources.  
  • Legislative mechanisms for automatic sanctions snap-backs.  
  • A maritime and river presence to secure the Black Sea and Danube export corridor.
    Together, these measures aim to establish a credible and immediate European deterrence posture. 

What direction is the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine likely to take?  The IDM Director anticipates a pattern of intermittent escalation, with Russia probing European resolve. However, the activation of Article 42.7 and the safeguarding of Ukraine’s trade routes, especially through the Danube, could stabilise the front and strengthen Kyiv’s strategic position. Without clear guarantees, the Kremlin could shift its attention toward regions such as the Baltics or Moldova, testing Western unity.  

A core message underscores that security must be matched with justice; a ceasefire that rewards aggression risks creating just peace, not a just peace. Embedding accountability and reparations into security arrangements transforms them from temporary de-escalations into durable stability.  

The analysis was featured as part of AzerNews’s segment, “Ukraine’s Security Dilemma: Experts Debate on Western Guarantees.”  

Péter Techet für RBB24 InfoRadio über ein mögliches Putin-Selenskyj-Treffen in Budapest

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Einige Medien berichteten, dass ein Treffen zwischen Wladimir Putin und Wolodymyr Selenskyj – auf Vorschlag von Donald Trump – in Budapest stattfinden könnte. Im RBB-Nachrichtensender erklärte Péter Techet, dass Orbán aufgrund seiner antiukrainischen Haltung und seiner Nähe zu Moskau in dem Konflikt keinesfalls unvoreingenommen sei und ein solches Treffen wie eine „Belohnung“ für seine antiukrainische Politik wirken würde. 

Das Interview kann hier gehört werden.