1097 Days Ago in the Future in Ukraine 

Three years or 1,097 days after Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sebastian Schäffer explains in his article on the IDM blog why, given the current geopolitical circumstances, we should not despair. Instead, we must recognize and make use of Europe’s still untapped potential—to continue standing with Ukraine and to strengthen our own resilience. 

 

On anniversaries, everyone wants to express their thoughts, which makes the statements sound very repetitive. People try to be original with their remarks, like telling where were you on 24. February 2022? Or making a call for action such as: As long as it takes, especially now! That could have been it maybe two years ago. Well, there is always the possibility to desperately get attention by spreading disinformation like “Actually, it’s Ukraine’s fault”. But now even the US president is regrettably saying that. And definitely least original is trying to be ironic or to take it to a meta level listing what could have been original.  

Learn from Ukrainians: Fight, do not despair 

So here goes something unoriginal: Yes, the situation is bleak, it is endgame, and if we lose it is entirely our, Europeans, own fault. However, what did the situation look like 1097 days ago, when the full-scale invasion began? What did you imagine the situation would look like three years later? “Ще не вмерла Україна! Ukraine has not yet perished!” Now is not the time to despair, to give up, to just surrender. Ukrainians have not until now, despite all odds. Instead of listening to the heinous claims of the US-(Vice-)President and his MAGAts, let the bravery of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his fellow country people inspire you. Because what we need now is courage. Fascism thrives in societies that feel helpless, authoritarians want you to think you are powerless, that you need to give up. Once the spirit is broken, it will be very hard to get rid of these (wannabe) dictators– and this time no one will come and save us. Yes, it seems like the geopolitical situation is getting worse every day, yes this is important and yes without a sovereign Ukraine there will be no future for European integration.  

Ukraine’s EU Membership must remain on the agenda 

Therefore, EU enlargement will become even more important now. Both EU members as well as candidate countries will have to make substantial efforts, but it is possible. My record might be broken (the vinyl, not the achievement), but I write it again: the average time of past negotiations to become a member of the European Union was three and a half years. The very difficult process from the Treaty of Nice to the Treaty of Lisbon took five and a half years. The combined population of all candidate countries is around 67 million, almost exactly the same as that of the. Been there, done that. The British GDP might be ten times of the Western Balkans plus Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. However, the majority of all enlargements were not driven out of economic reasons, but to stabilize young democracies. Yes, the accession of the mentioned candidate countries would add nine more possible vetoes in the EU decision making process, but the solution is quite straightforward: extend qualified majority voting to all policy areas on EU level. Make use of the enhanced cooperation procedure where there are no competences yet. Implement it also in areas where they are already, if necessary, it is better to advance with some in these crucial times than to be held back by few or get the usual pareto sub-optimal outcomes with the smallest common denominator.  

Untapped defense potential of the EU  

One of the major concerns that I, amongst others, have mentioned is Article 42.7 TEU, the mutual defense clause. Without NATO (read: the US), it could be quite challenging to uphold what the article says: If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power […]. Well, here is the opportunity to change that. There is so much potential in defense cooperation on EU level. We have talked about it nearly as much as we do about climate change, with similar meagre progress. Transformation is always painful and it might have its price, but the costs of inaction – again in both protecting our environment and providing collective security in Europe – are far greater. Ukrainians have turned the tragedy of the Russian aggression against them into opportunity, be it advancing manufacturing of military and civilian goods (sometimes even combined for instance in apparel), developing technologies like drones (in the current circumstances especially for defense purposes, but this technology will be useful also after the war) or progressing in EU integration (three years ago almost no government official would have said that Ukraine should become a candidate country let alone start membership negotiations).  

Be brave – be Ukrainian! 

So instead of words of support or trying to debunk all the false claims, a call to action: Be brave – be Ukrainian! So that in 1096 days from now, we will not have surrendered but defended our values and paved the way for a stable, secure, prosperous, democratic, and free Europe! 

 

You might also be interested in:

Vor 100 Jahren in der Zukunft, a book by Sebastian Schäffer

You can read the whole text here.

 

Sebastian Schäffer is Director of the IDM. 

Edited by Malwina Talik and Sophia Beiter 

The opinions expressed in this article represent the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDM.