IDM Short Insights 54: Will EU Citizens Be Ready for EU Enlargement?
In the latest IDM short insights, Elena Marko analyzes the high-stakes political gridlock unfolding in Slovenia following the recent, highly polarized parliamentary elections. Billed as a defining moment for the country’s future direction, the vote centered on whether Janez Janša’s increasingly anti-democratic and anti-European SDS party would regain dominance, or if the political center-left could maintain control.
Transcript:
“Two weeks ago, Slovenia elected a new parliament, which we’ll meet for the first time tomorrow, and the elections were widely seen as a question of the country’s future direction, with the main question being whether Yanis Yancha and his SDS party would once again become the party with the most votes.
Slovenia’s political landscape is very much divided into two main blocks, a centre right block and a centre left block. The centre left is very fragmented with a lot of new parties emerging frequently. For example also the freedom movement and about Golob, which was founded in 2021 and this freedom movement won the election surprisingly 4 years ago, forming a government with the Social Democrats and the left radical libidza. The centre right is much more stable with young scientists, SDS being the main force. However under young she’s last term, which was from 2020 to 2022, the SDS became increasingly anti democratic and anti European. The elections were very close. The Freedom Movement won with 29 seats, compared to the 28 seats from the SDS party. The Slovenian parliament has a total of 90 seats, however, two of them are allocated to the representatives of the Hungarian and Italian minorities respectively, who, however, almost always follow the government. Now the truly important phase has begun. However, forming a government is proving very difficult since neither the Freedom Movement nor the SDS are holding the majority which would be 46 seats. Now all the power lies with the smaller parties. This includes a right wing Christian Democratic Agrarian alliance, then also the Democrats led by Angeloga who is a former former ally of Yangsha, the Social Democrats, a left alliance called Vesna Levitza and also a anti European and populist party Raznitzo.
An initial sense of mood among these parties has already become clear on Tuesday, since Robert Golub has begun to form a government of national unity without SDS and without Lesnitze. However, the Christian Democratic right wing agrarian trio has already rejected the proposed coalition with the other parties, stating that because of different values they could not see themselves in a government together with the freedom movement.
One key question now is how Angeloga and his Democrats will act together with the Social Democrats, the Freedom movement and the Left Alliance, they would reach the 46 seats needed for majority. However, ideologically this would be very unlikely. Also, because Loga, shortly after the elections has already ruled out cooperation with Lagitza, there would probably be more options on the centre right, for example cooperation with the SDS, Angelogas and Democrats, the populist Resnita and also the Christian Democratic right wing Agrarian trial. However, forming a government will be difficult in any case.”
