Schäffer for Al-Quahera News: Sustainable peace requires robust security guarantees

In a live interview with Al-Qahera News, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer argued that a sustainable peace in Ukraine cannot be reduced to a short-term ceasefire. Instead, it must be anchored in robust and credible security guaranteesdesigned to prevent renewed aggression.

Schäffer stressed that continued and reliable funding for Ukraine’s defence forces remains indispensable if any future agreement is to endure. He referred to recent discussions hosted by the German federal government in Berlin, where long-term security arrangements and burden-sharing among partners were discussed.

A central concern raised in the interview was the asymmetry between strong U.S. pressure for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a genuine peace, contrasted with serious doubts about whether the Russian Federation is prepared to do the same. Schäffer warned that negotiations risk stagnation as long as Moscow maintains maximalist demands, including calls for Ukraine to cede territory, in some cases territory Russia does not even fully control.

This assessment was reinforced by Dr. Maksym Yali, Kyiv-based professor of international relations, who underlined that such territorial concessions are incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution, making agreement on these terms legally and politically impossible.

Schäffer also emphasized the decisive role Europe will have to play, particularly the European Union, not only in Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU integration but also in shaping and sustaining a future security framework. Among the options discussed were European contributions on the ground to help guarantee any eventual peace agreement.

Without credible security guarantees, Schäffer concluded, hostilities would merely be paused, not ended.