European security guarantees for Ukraine in focus — IDM voices expert analysis

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In a recent appearance on AzerNews, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer delivered a focused expert analysis on two pivotal questions concerning Ukraine’s security:  

How can the U.S. and Europe ensure Russia will not launch further aggression against Ukraine? 

Schäffer proposed a “42.7 Ukraine Compact”, utilizing Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the EU’s mutual defence clause, as the core strategic framework. Key elements include:  

  • Planned, predictable deliveries of air and missile defences.  
  • Sharing of real-time intelligence and surveillance data from allied sources.  
  • Legislative mechanisms for automatic sanctions snap-backs.  
  • A maritime and river presence to secure the Black Sea and Danube export corridor.
    Together, these measures aim to establish a credible and immediate European deterrence posture. 

What direction is the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine likely to take?  The IDM Director anticipates a pattern of intermittent escalation, with Russia probing European resolve. However, the activation of Article 42.7 and the safeguarding of Ukraine’s trade routes, especially through the Danube, could stabilise the front and strengthen Kyiv’s strategic position. Without clear guarantees, the Kremlin could shift its attention toward regions such as the Baltics or Moldova, testing Western unity.  

A core message underscores that security must be matched with justice; a ceasefire that rewards aggression risks creating just peace, not a just peace. Embedding accountability and reparations into security arrangements transforms them from temporary de-escalations into durable stability.  

The analysis was featured as part of AzerNews’s segment, “Ukraine’s Security Dilemma: Experts Debate on Western Guarantees.”