EU Trio Presidency Rewind: From Spain, over Belgium, to Hungary

Đorđe Dimitrov, MA; Sava Mitrović, MA

To grasp the opportunities of the new EU institutional cycle, one must first examine how the previous one ended. From mid-2023 to 2024, Spain, Belgium, and Hungary led the EU Trio Presidency amid geopolitical tensions, economic stag- nation, and energy crisis. The EU faced pressure to assert itself while managing enlargement through “gradual integra- tion.” This paper reviews key challenges and offers recommendations for the next Trio to enhance strategic autonomy, competitiveness, and enlargement.

1. Strengthening EU unity, security, and competitiveness: With the challenges of a possible second Trump presidency, the incoming EU Council Presidency Trio must prioritise unity in the Common Foreign and Security Policy by bridging internal differences. Additionally, it must engage with Trump’s administration to secure a long-term solution for Ukraine. Moreover, it needs to ensure funding for joint European defence and additional aid to Ukraine if a ceasefire is not reached. Meanwhile, the EU risks falling further behind the US and China in innovation, threatening its competitiveness, with the gap increasing. With looming US tariffs, the Trio must bolster economic and defence resilience, prioritising innovation over excessive regulation to drive growth in crucial areas such as AI and digital economy.

2. Towards applying gradual institutional integration: Following the successful operationalisation of the financial pillar of the Staged Accession model through the New Growth Plan, the new Trio should find a way to include candidate countries in the work of EU institutions in a predictable and merit-based manner. Poland, as the current presiding country, can use its position to initiate a practice of inviting candidate countries to participate in the work of the EU Council. To make this practicecredible and predictable, Poland could agree with its Trio partners – Denmark and Cyprus – to adopt a unified approach and communicate their strategy through a non-paper to other member states. Initially, candidates should be occasionally involved in discussions on mutually important topics within the Council working bodies corresponding to the clusters they have opened. Over time, their participation could expand in both scope and frequency to include the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) and ministerial meetings, specifically in policy areas corresponding to the chapters they have closed, as long as they meet the interim benchmarks for the rule of law chapters. Such a form of political integration would thus fit well with the ongoing efforts to facilitate economic integration prior to EU membership.