IDM Short Insights 39: Presidential Elections and a Referendum in Moldova
On 20 October, Moldova will hold presidential elections and a referendum that will decide on amending the Constitution with a view to the accession of the country to the European Union. In the latest IDM Short Insight, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer reports directly from Chișinău and explains what impact the votes could have and how Russia is trying to intervene in the process of the elections and the referendum.
Transcript
This coming Sunday there will be a decisive election here in the Republic of Moldova. Not only is the reelection of the current president Maia Sandu on the ballot, but also the question if the goal of European integration should be inserted into the constitution of the Republic of Moldova.
It’s currently unclear if there will be a majority for this constitutional change. Roughly 40% would be in favour of it, 40% against it and 20% are still undecided. There’s also the question if Maia Sandu will be reelected as President. She’s currently leading in the polls, with roughly one third of the votes. However, the 9 other candidates are almost evenly split, with a frontrunner coming from the party of Socialists, Alexander Stoianoglo. The question will be if the votes for the other mostly independent candidates – amongst them the former Baskan of Gagauzia Irina Vlah – will be then going to Maia Sandu or towards the second placed candidate.
In any case, there is more at stake here: the question of a European future for the country, and this decision is heavily influenced by disinformation coming from the Kremlin. There has been a big disinformation campaign uncovered by an investigative journalist just yesterday. And we will see if the propaganda that is coming from Moscow, will tear this country back into the realm of the Kremlin.
We hope that there will be a European future for the country. However, what we need to do is also discuss and maybe decouple this question between an election for the President and the vote in the constitutional amendment.
This is not something that is happening here. There is quite a nervousness in the country, especially the fear of people, that if the negative referendum will close the European path and also block maybe the future accession negotiations. I don’t think that this would be necessarily the case. It’s not a referendum on joining the European Union or not. But of course, the stakes are very high, the situation is very tense and we also do not see a lot of advertisements on the streets, but it’s rather on TV, and on social media channels. So the battle is fought on the virtual space, which is, of course, also heavily influenceable.
We will, of course, continue to talk about the developments in the country regardless of the outcome. In any case, we hope for a European future for the Republic of Moldova.