FO° Talks with IDM Director: Sebastian Schäffer Discusses Scenarios for Ukraine and the Strategic Outlook for Europe
Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), was invited back to FO° Talks for a timely discussion with host Rohan Khattar Singh. The conversation took place amid renewed public debate about potential “peace proposals” for Ukraine and heightened speculation following Moscow’s latest demands. As Schäffer emphasised, these statements should not be mistaken for readiness to negotiate but rather understood as an attempt to influence political discourse in Europe and the United States.
The talk highlighted that the proposals currently circulating go well beyond ceasefire arrangements. They include expectations for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories and the formal recognition of altered borders. Such ideas, if pursued, would challenge the established principles of the European security order and risk normalising the use of force to achieve political objectives.
During the interview, Schäffer outlined three plausible scenarios for how the war may evolve in the coming years. The first is a frozen conflict, in which large-scale hostilities subside but the risk of renewed fighting remains high. The second is a prolonged war, extending the insecurity and strategic pressure Europe has faced since 2022. The third scenario — Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders — would offer a path to lasting stability, yet under the current balance of forces, Schäffer assesses this outcome as “very unlikely.”
Regardless of which scenario proves most accurate, Schäffer stressed that Europe must prepare for sustained instability. The next five to ten years, he argued, are likely to be marked by continued threats, uncertainty and political tension, both within the region and in the broader European security landscape. He cautioned that any settlement based on territorial concessions would not resolve the conflict but risk legitimising aggression and setting a dangerous precedent for the continent.
The full FO° Talks discussion is available here.
