Sebastian Schäffer on Russia’s fuel crisis, Patriot missiles and the risk of a provocation against Poland – Interview with War & Politics 24
In conversation with Maxym Krapivnyy on the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer assessed the latest statements from the Kremlin and their implications for Ukraine and European security.
The discussion focused on Russia’s growing frustration with the course of the war, the emerging fuel crisis inside the country and the possibility of further hybrid and military escalation.
Schäffer noted that Moscow’s increasing reliance on strikes against civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities reflects a lack of progress on the battlefield rather than renewed strength. He argued that Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian supply lines and target refineres and other elements of the war economy has begun to bring the conflict home to the Russian population, even as the regime seeks to adapt and absorb these pressures.
The interview also addressed the debate around a possible nationwide mobilization in Russia following this autumn’s parliamentary elections and the expected licensing of Patriot interceptor missiles for production in Ukraine. Schäffer warned that broader mobilization could temporarily shift momentum at the front but might also deepen domestic discontent with the Kremlin. At the same time, he underlined that robust air defence and credible security guarantees will be essential to deter future attacks, since agreements with the Russian Federation have repeatedly been violated by Moscow in the past.
Looking beyond Ukraine, Schäffer highlighted the growing importance of hybrid tactics aimed at dividing the European Union and testing NATO’s resolve, including the possibility of armed provocations against Poland designed to probe the responsiveness of Article 5. In this context, he stressed that Ukraine is defending far more than its own territory, arguing that sustained and adequate support for Kyiv remains central to European freedom and security.
Watch the full interview on YouTube:
