Unity, Pressure, and Fragile Optimism: IDM Director on the Future of Ukraine for Asharq News
IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer recently spoke with Asharq News following a visit to Kyiv, where he assessed the current state of the war and international responses. While the conflict continues, Schäffer highlighted the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people. At the same time, he noted the heavy toll that more than three years of full-scale war has taken on the country, including on President Zelensky, who remains committed to pursuing a diplomatic resolution.
Schäffer pointed to recent high-level visits by European leaders – among them the German Chancellor Freidrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk – as a strong signal of unity and ongoing support for Ukraine.
Reflecting on previous trips to Ukraine, Schäffer observed a noticeable shift in the atmosphere in Kyiv, from relative calm to heightened tension, with Russia applying increased military and psychological pressure. He described the current phase as possibly Russia’s most intense push since last fall.
Looking ahead to the proposed meeting between President Zelensky and Valdimir Putin coming Thursday in Turkey, Schäffer warned that he doesn’t expect the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire soon, messages from Moscow already hint towards this. The Russian war economy is not prepared for peace and neither is the regime. However, if negotiations stall, frustration among international actors – including unpredictable figures like U.S. President Donald Trump – could paradoxically lead to stronger support for Ukraine. The European partners at the very least should keep up the sanctions or even find approaches to increase the pressure as well.
Despite the challenges, Schäffer remains cautiously optimistic. Continued international engagement, he emphasized, is essential to keeping diplomatic channels open and preventing further escalation.
You can watch the interview (in Arabic) here.
