In an interview with Caliber.az, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer assessed the outcomes of the NATO summit in Ankara, arguing that it may mark the beginning of a new phase in the Alliance’s evolution. 

Drawing a parallel with the 2004 Istanbul Summit, Schäffer noted that NATO is again placing collective defence at the centre of its mission, but in a profoundly changed strategic environment. Russia’s war against Ukraine, Ukraine’s deep integration into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture and growing uncertainty over US leadership are shaping this transformation. 

“If Istanbul represented the emergence of NATO 2.0, Ankara may well mark the beginning of NATO 3.0,” Schäffer stated. “Whether this transformation will develop into a lasting strategic adaptation, however, remains to be seen.” 

Schäffer highlighted the renewed commitment to Article 5, the pledge by European Allies and Canada to provide €70 billion in support to Ukraine in 2026 and at least the same amount in 2027, as well as the increasing recognition of Ukraine as an integral contributor to Euro-Atlantic security. He also pointed to Germany’s emerging role as a key financial contributor and stabilising force within the Alliance. 

At the same time, Schäffer cautioned that Allied cohesion remains fragile. Political disagreements, including over defence spending and wider transatlantic priorities, continue to test NATO’s unity. 

Addressing Türkiye’s role, Schäffer stressed that hosting the summit had further strengthened Ankara’s strategic importance. Located at the intersection of the war against Ukraine, Black Sea security and escalating instability in the Middle East, Türkiye has become increasingly difficult to replace as a NATO member. Its role also illustrates a defining feature of this emerging “NATO 3.0”: strategic indispensability combined with political complexity. 

The whole interview is available here: https://caliber.az/en/post/the-summit-of-great-transformation