Europas Zukunft: IDM-Direktor Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger-Podcast

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Sebastian Schäffer, Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM), spricht in einem aktuellen Podcast mit Gunther Fehlinger über zentrale Herausforderungen und Perspektiven für Europas Zukunft in einem komplexen geopolitischen Umfeld. Das Gespräch richtet sich an ein breites Publikum, das sich für die Entwicklung der Europäischen Union, die EU-Erweiterung und regionale Stabilität interessiert. 

Schäffer betont die Bedeutung strategischer Partnerschaften innerhalb Europas und mit den östlichen Nachbarstaaten und analysiert aktuelle Fragen der EU- und NATO-Erweiterung, institutionelle Reformen sowie die Rolle des Donauraums als Brückenkopf zwischen West und Ost. Dabei diskutiert er, welche strukturellen Anpassungen die Union braucht, um langfristig Stabilität, demokratische Resilienz und nachhaltiges Wachstum zu sichern. 

Auf Basis seiner langjährigen Expertise zur europäischen Integration, EU-Erweiterung und zur politischen Dynamik im Donauraum ordnet Schäffer aktuelle Entwicklungen vor dem Hintergrund globaler Machtverschiebungen ein. Er zeigt, warum eine glaubwürdige Erweiterungsperspektive für Ukraine, Republik Moldau und den Westbalkan sowie mehr strategische Kohärenz entscheidend für die Zukunftsfähigkeit Europas sind 

Zum Anhören und Anschauen: 

▶️ YouTube: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM) 
🎧 Spotify: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger Podcast 

Péter Techet für STVR Pátria Rádió über die kommenden Parlamentswahlen

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In einem Interview mit der ungarischsprachigen Sendung des Slowakischen Rundfunkes STVR analysierte Péter Techet die Bedeutung der Parlamentswahlen, die in Mittel-, Ostmittel- und Südosteuropa (Slowenien, Ungarn, ostdeutsche Bundesländer, Bosnien-Herzegowina) 2026 stattfinden werden

Das Interview kann hier nachgehört werden.

Why Slovak PM Fico’s Critique of the EU Says More About Bratislava Than Brussels 

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s recent criticism of the European Union should be read primarily as domestic political messaging rather than a substantive strategic assessment of the EU’s future. This is one of the key conclusions highlighted in a recent analysis published by Azernews, which references comments by Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM). 

According to Schäffer, Fico’s warnings about an alleged “collapse” of the European Union fit into a broader pattern of political rhetoric aimed at consolidating support at home. Emphasising national sovereignty and traditional values has become a familiar strategy among several political actors in Central Europe, particularly when addressing electorates sceptical of Brussels. 

The analysis notes that while the EU is undoubtedly facing structural and political challenges, framing these as existential threats risks obscuring the Union’s continued strategic relevance for its member states. Schäffer underlines that Slovakia’s economic development, security environment, and regional integration remain closely tied to EU membership and cooperation. 

Fico’s interpretation of international developments, including references to shifting transatlantic priorities, is also treated with caution in the analysis. Such arguments, Schäffer suggests, often rely on selective readings of complex geopolitical processes and are primarily designed to reinforce domestic narratives rather than inform policy debate at the European level. 

As debates over the future direction of the European Union intensify, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, the distinction between internal political signalling and genuine strategic critique remains essential for understanding current dynamics within the EU. 

Read the article here.

Péter Techet für Die Presse über die Beneš-Dekrete

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In der Slowakei wurde die Kritik an den Beneš-Dekreten strafrechtlich verboten. Dabei geht es um jene Dekrete, mit denen Angehörige der deutschen und ungarischen Minderheit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg enteignet wurden. Obwohl sie formal weiterhin gelten, wurde sowohl in Prag als auch in Bratislava beteuert, dass sie nicht mehr angewendet würden. Dennoch werden in der Slowakei Grundstücke von Eigentümern ungarischer Abstammung weiterhin auf Grundlage dieser Dekrete entzogen. Dies wird sowohl von der linksliberalen Partei Progressive Slowakei als auch von der Partei der ungarischen Minderheit kritisiert.

In seinem Gastbeitrag für Die Presse schilderte Péter Techet die aktuellen Debatten über die Dekrete sowie mögliche Gründe dafür, warum Viktor Orbán die slowakische Regierung dennoch nicht kritisiert.

Der Artikel kann hier gelesen werden.

Schäffer for Al-Quahera News: Sustainable peace requires robust security guarantees

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In a live interview with Al-Qahera News, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer argued that a sustainable peace in Ukraine cannot be reduced to a short-term ceasefire. Instead, it must be anchored in robust and credible security guaranteesdesigned to prevent renewed aggression.

Schäffer stressed that continued and reliable funding for Ukraine’s defence forces remains indispensable if any future agreement is to endure. He referred to recent discussions hosted by the German federal government in Berlin, where long-term security arrangements and burden-sharing among partners were discussed.

A central concern raised in the interview was the asymmetry between strong U.S. pressure for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a genuine peace, contrasted with serious doubts about whether the Russian Federation is prepared to do the same. Schäffer warned that negotiations risk stagnation as long as Moscow maintains maximalist demands, including calls for Ukraine to cede territory, in some cases territory Russia does not even fully control.

This assessment was reinforced by Dr. Maksym Yali, Kyiv-based professor of international relations, who underlined that such territorial concessions are incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution, making agreement on these terms legally and politically impossible.

Schäffer also emphasized the decisive role Europe will have to play, particularly the European Union, not only in Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU integration but also in shaping and sustaining a future security framework. Among the options discussed were European contributions on the ground to help guarantee any eventual peace agreement.

Without credible security guarantees, Schäffer concluded, hostilities would merely be paused, not ended.

FO° Talks with IDM Director: Sebastian Schäffer Discusses Scenarios for Ukraine and the Strategic Outlook for Europe

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Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), was invited back to FO° Talks for a timely discussion with host Rohan Khattar Singh. The conversation took place amid renewed public debate about potential “peace proposals” for Ukraine and heightened speculation following Moscow’s latest demands. As Schäffer emphasised, these statements should not be mistaken for readiness to negotiate but rather understood as an attempt to influence political discourse in Europe and the United States. 

The talk highlighted that the proposals currently circulating go well beyond ceasefire arrangements. They include expectations for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories and the formal recognition of altered borders. Such ideas, if pursued, would challenge the established principles of the European security order and risk normalising the use of force to achieve political objectives. 

During the interview, Schäffer outlined three plausible scenarios for how the war may evolve in the coming years. The first is a frozen conflict, in which large-scale hostilities subside but the risk of renewed fighting remains high. The second is a prolonged war, extending the insecurity and strategic pressure Europe has faced since 2022. The third scenario — Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders — would offer a path to lasting stability, yet under the current balance of forces, Schäffer assesses this outcome as “very unlikely.” 

Regardless of which scenario proves most accurate, Schäffer stressed that Europe must prepare for sustained instability. The next five to ten years, he argued, are likely to be marked by continued threats, uncertainty and political tension, both within the region and in the broader European security landscape. He cautioned that any settlement based on territorial concessions would not resolve the conflict but risk legitimising aggression and setting a dangerous precedent for the continent. 

The full FO° Talks discussion is available here. 

Sebastian Schäffer on Asharq News: “A rushed agreement would endanger Ukraine and Europe alike” 

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on Asharq News to comment on recent statements suggesting that a peace agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine is imminent. Schäffer urged caution, noting that the unresolved issues, particularly the situation in the Donbas and control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, are fundamental to Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term security. 

He emphasised that credible security guarantees for Ukraine remain unclear, especially against the backdrop of rapidly shifting signals from Washington. Schäffer also criticised the lack of unity within the European Union, where governments in Hungary and Slovakia continue to undermine collective efforts on military assistance, financial support, and the release of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction, which has lately added Belgium to the club of countries hesitating to further help Ukraine. 

According to Schäffer, these divisions risk encouraging the Kremlin to increase pressure on Kyiv, assuming that Western cohesion can be easily broken. He stressed that the consequences extend far beyond Ukraine itself: “This is about the future of the entire European security architecture. A bad deal or forced concessions would fundamentally reshape the continent’s stability.” 

Schäffer called for coordinated action among EU member states and international partners, including Canada, Japan, and other like-minded actors, to prevent any agreement that weakens Ukraine or compromises Europe’s long-term security interests. 

Watch the full interview (in Arabic) here: ضعف الاتحاد الأوروبي يعرقل جهود سلام أوكرانيا | NOW الشرق

Péter Techet für NZZ über Österreichs Rolle in der Außenpolitik 

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Ausgehend von der Identitätskrise, die in Österreich nach dem Zerfall der Habsburgermonarchie entstand, beschreibt Techet in seinem Essay für die Neue Zürcher Zeitung, wie sich Österreich nach 1918 verleugnen und nach 1945 neu erfinden wollte.  

Auch wenn der Republikanismus längst zum Grundkonsens geworden ist, strebte Österreich besonders nach seinem EU-Beitritt danach, die „habsburgische“ Tradition weiterzuführen: Europas Integration nach Osten und Südosten voranzutreiben. In den letzten Jahren jedoch hat sich die österreichische Außenpolitik auf eine „kleinstaatliche“ Rolle zurückgezogen. Techet schlägt daher vor, Robert Musils Idee vom „Weltösterreich“ wieder aufzugreifen. Dafür braucht es keinen neuen Kaiser, sondern eine mutige und aktive Außenpolitik. 

Der Artikel kann hier gelesen werden: https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-welt-abhandengekommen-oesterreich-igelt-sich-politisch-in-seiner-kleinstaatlichkeit-ein-ld.1913247  

IDM Director for Al-Qahera News on “peace negotiations” for Ukraine 

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer commented for Cairo-based broadcaster Al-Qahera News on the recent secretive talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff on a potential ceasefire plan for Ukraine. In the interview, he stressed that these negotiations are being conducted without direct Ukrainian participation and underlined the principle that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine.  

Schäffer warned that any agreement reached over Kyiv’s head risks undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic legitimacy, especially if it pressures Ukraine into territorial or military concessions that would reward Russian aggression. He highlighted that such a precedent would be dangerous for smaller states more broadly, signalling that great powers can unilaterally redraw borders at their expense.  

At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing importance of robust and predictable support from the European Union and other partners, noting that debates in Washington and European capitals over military aid and security guarantees will decisively shape Kyiv’s room for manoeuvre. For any ceasefire to be credible and sustainable, he argued, Ukraine needs strong, long-term security guarantees and continued political, military and financial backing from its partners. 

Short clip: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/_upFCfxt2ik?si=jh4SgNqIdEdAVLbw 

Full interview: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zx7yDySipWE 

Péter Techet für STVR Pátria Rádió über Orbáns Besuch in Moskau 

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Im ungarischsprachigen Programm des Slowakischen Rundfunks (STVR) sprach Péter Techet über die möglichen Gründe und die innenpolitischen Auswirkungen von Orbáns Besuch in Moskau. 

Das Interview kann hier nachgehört werden: https://patria24.stvr.sk/2025/12/01/mit-keres-orban-viktor-putyin-asztalanal/