Sebastian Schäffer on Russian propaganda and the possibility of a coup in the Kremlin – Interview with War & Politics 24

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In conversation with the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer was asked for his assessment of the latest propaganda statements from the Kremlin. What does Russia’s public announcement that it will withdraw from trilateral negotiations on the war of aggression in Ukraine mean, given that these negotiations have so far served the Kremlin’s interests? And what does the changed tone, even within Russia, reveal about the state of the regime? 

In the interview, Schäffer emphasised that statements from the Kremlin must always be viewed critically and within the specific context of their target audience – historically, he noted, discrepancies between rhetoric and actual actions have often been evident in the context of Kremlin propaganda. Schäffer also pointed out that Russia’s threats must always be viewed within the context of demonstrations of power in both domestic and foreign policy. So whilst nuclear threats and warnings of attacks on the militaryparade on 9 May are intended to project strength domestically, according to Schäffer, these could also be interpreted in foreign policy terms as a sign of growing weakness and a loss of control. Regarding the question of a possible coup in the Kremlin, Schäffer says that there are certainly different factions within the Kremlin who are already considering what a post-Putin Russia might look like – which does not necessarily mean that a coup is imminent, but simply that the possibility of a post-Putin Russia iscoming into focus. On the question of Sergei Shoigu’s role, Schäffer does suggest the possibility of a potential betrayal of Putin in order to save himself. At the same time, however, Schäffer emphasised that it is difficult to look inside the Kremlin from theoutside, and in doing so also referred to the concept of kremlinology. 

  

Watch the full video online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkn-iSq037k 

Sebastian Schäffer on Ukraine, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz — Interview with Qnews

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer spoke with Cairo-based Qnews’ programme In Focus on the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US “Operation Freedom” initiative, joining the programme from Vienna shortly after returning from a visit to Ukraine. 

Schäffer cautioned against reading Ukraine’s targeting of Baltic Sea oil ports as a direct reaction to events in the Gulf. The strategy, he argued, predates the Hormuz closure and is driven by a consistent logic: disrupting the revenue flows that sustain Russia’s war effort. With oil prices rising sharply following the closure, the stakes of that strategy have only grown. And the root cause, Schäffer stressed, remains clear: had Russia not invaded Ukraine, none of this would be happening. 

On the US response, Schäffer expressed scepticism toward the humanitarian framing of “Operation Freedom,” pointing to a broader pattern in which the Trump administration generatesinstability before positioning itself as the solution. He noted that Tehran’s wariness of the growing US military presence in the region is, in that context, geopolitically understandable. 

▶ Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/jbQDp0zqtwU 

Meeting with Igor Kogut at IDM

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On 16 March 2026, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer met with Igor Kogut at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) to discuss ongoing cooperation, including the study UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT IN WARTIME: KEY TENDENCIES AND CHALLENGES, and explore further opportunities for collaboration. The meeting also touched upon plans for Schäffer’s upcoming visit to Kyiv at the end of April, where these joint initiatives will be continued.

Shaping the future of EU enlargement: project concludes with final event in Budapest

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The concluding event of the project ‘Central Europe and Future EU Enlargement‘ took place from 10–11 March in Budapest.

During a roundtable discussion with an extended consortium on the premises of the Central European University, partners shared best practices and talked about how to continue the cooperation beyond the scope of the project.

The final presentation of results and panel discussion was part of the Budapest Balkans Forum, which was organised by our project partner the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Research Associate Rebecca Thorne gave an overview of the project activities and highlighted some recommendations from the policy papers, before the panellists took the stage for a discussion on enlargement momentum. The panel featured Krševan Antun Dujmović, expert advisor at the Institute for Development and International Relations; Filip Ilankovic, Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs; Stevan Kandic, Advisor to the Vice-President of the Parliament of Montenegro; and Grigorij Meseznikov, President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO). The discussion was moderated by IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer.

Thank you to the International Visegrad Fund for their support as well as to all partners for the excellent cooperation: Association for International Affairs (Czechia), Europeum (Czechia), Institute of Public Affairs (Poland), Institute for Public Affairs (Slovakia), Albanian Network for Rural Development, Institute for European Policies and Reforms (Moldova), European Policy Centre (Serbia), Ukrainian Institute for International Politics, Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism’.