Sebastian Schäffer on the escalation between Russia and Germany after Leipzig/Halle drone incident

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An incident involving an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport has triggered a fresh escalation in tensions between Berlin and Moscow. German authorities have accused Russian state structures of involvement in the sabotage, claiming that the drone was targeting a Ukrainian An-124 military transport aircraft. Berlin subsequently moved to close Russia’s Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House in the capital. Moscow retaliated by announcing the closure of Goethe-Institut branches in Russia. 

In an interview with Caliber.az, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer assessed the incident as part of a broader Russian hybrid campaign against European countries supporting Ukraine. According to Schäffer, German investigators have forensic evidence that could help identify those responsible, and Berlin therefore views the incident as a Russia-linked act of sabotage. 

““Moscow’s objective is to increase the political and security costs of supporting Ukraine. Germany, as a key military, industrial and logistical hub for assistance to Kyiv, is one of the main targets. Attacks on critical infrastructure, military facilities and transport networks are intended to sow fear and division in Europe without escalating to a direct confrontation with NATO,” Schäffer said. 

He strongly condemned statements by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev threatening strikes against German facilities, describing them as an unacceptable threat against a NATO member and part of an attempt to intimidate European governments and societies supporting Ukraine. 

Schäffer also pointed to persisting divisions over Russia within Germany. “Among the far-right AfD in particular, there is a widespread view that sanctions are hurting Germany more than Russia and that Berlin should restore dialogue and economic ties with Moscow while reducing its support for Ukraine. This debate is becoming particularly relevant ahead of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is leading in opinion polls,” he said. 

“Citizens’ economic concerns are real. However, hoping to achieve stability through concessions to Moscow is an illusion. In my view, abandoning pressure will not lead to peace; it will only reward aggression and create conditions for its further escalation,” Schäffer concluded. 

Read the full article here: https://caliber.az/en/post/moscow-berlin-a-new-war-of-nerves? 

 

Péter Techet for 24.hu on EU Enlargement after Iceland’s Rejection

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Péter Techet wrote an op-ed for the Hungarian news portal 24.hu. The article examines the Icelandic referendum: why the EU is not attractive to developed countries, and whether there is any prospect of a “social Europe” in the context of further enlargement to the east.

The article can be read here: Techet Péter: Európai egység – túl sok bürokrácia vagy túl kevés jóléti állam? | 24.hu

Peter Techet for Parameter.sk on Robert Fico’s Ukraine Policy

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Peter Techet was interviewed by Paraméter, a Hungarian-language news portal in Slovakia, about whether and how Robert Fico could continue Viktor Orbán’s policy on Ukraine.

He emphasized that although Fico has now blocked an automatic one-year extension of the EU’s Russia sanctions, Slovakia does not in fact challenge the sanctions themselves.

With regard to Orbán’s policy so far, Techet points out that an interesting pattern can be observed: while Fico is pursuing similar objectives to Orbán in his Ukraine policy, in EU policy toward Israel it is the Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša who is continuing the position previously associated with Hungary.

The article can be read here: Fico Orbán helyére léphet: Szlovákia egyedül blokkolhatja az orosz szankciók meghosszabbítását

Sebastian Schäffer on Qnews: Dialogue, deterrence and Russia’s war against Ukraine

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer returned to Qnews’ Think Tank to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine, NATO, European security and how Moscow may interpret recent statements from Washington.

The discussion addressed the role of deterrence, the importance of sustained support for Ukraine and the wider consequences of the war for European security. It also highlighted the challenge of engaging in dialogue when familiar Kremlin narratives continue to blur responsibility for the war, question Ukraine’s agency and create false equivalence.

Schäffer underlined that dialogue remains necessary. However, a meaningful conversation about peace has to begin with the facts: Russia started the war against Ukraine, Ukraine has the right to defend itself, and Ukrainians have the right to decide their own future.

The discussion also touched on cognitive resilience. Repeated disinformation and manipulative narratives can become more plausible through repetition alone. Recognising these patterns, checking claims and maintaining a shared understanding of reality are therefore essential for democratic societies.

Watch the full discussion on YouTube:

Gesichter des Krieges 

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Am 29. August wird in der Ukraine der Gedenktag für die Verteidiger*innen des Landes begangen. Dieser Tag erinnert auch an den 29. August 2014, an dem sich die Tragödie von Ilovaisk abspielte. Hunderte ukrainische Soldat*innen wurden in einem der humanitären Korridore von russischen Truppen angegriffen und getötet.  

Was bedeutet es wirklich, die eigene Heimat zu verteidigen? Welche inneren Prozesse führen zu der Entscheidung, alles zu riskieren, bis hin zum eigenen Leben, um die Familie und die eigenen demokratischen Werte zu schützen? Diesen und vielen weiteren Fragen sind wir gemeinsam mit Serhiy Volosovets und Mykola Hradnov nachgegangen. Die beiden Ukrainer kannten sich bereits aus ihrer gemeinsamen Zeit an der Schauspielschule Kerpenko-Karyi in Kyjiw. Unabhängig voneinander entschieden sie sich, als Soldaten für ihr Land einzustehen und trafen sich Jahre später als Veteranen wieder, in ihrer gemeinsamen Arbeit füreinander und andere Betroffene. 

Der Ausbruch des Krieges 

In unserem Interview erzählen Mykola und Serhiy, wie sich der Ausbruch des Krieges für sie angefühlt hat, wie abrupt sie aus ihrem gewohnten Alltag gerissen wurden, welche Erfahrungen sie auf dem Schlachtfeld prägten, und wie ihr Leben als Veteranen heute aussieht, geprägt von körperlichen wie seelischen Verletzungen. Wie kann eine Gesellschaft verwundete Soldaten auffangen? Was kann man tun, wenn man nicht mehr kämpfen kann, aber dennoch sein Land unterstützen möchte? Und welche Verantwortung bringt die Arbeit als Veteran mit sich? Es sind vielschichtige Facetten, die das neue Leben von Mykola und Serhiy prägen.  

Vom Schauspieler zum Soldaten 

Mykola wurde als Drohnenführer ausgebildet und beschreibt, wie diese Waffen im Verlauf des Krieges eine immer größere Rolle einnahmen. Anders als man annehmen könnte, steuert man als Drohnenführer den Flugkörper nicht aus sicherer, entfernter Distanz, auch hier erlebt man gefährliche Kampfsituationen hautnah. Eindrücklich sprach Mykola im Gespräch über den Zusammenhalt zwischen den Soldaten, über den Verlust von Kameraden und den eigenen Beinen, über die traurigen Schicksale, die sich ereigneten, und die Spuren, die all das hinterlässt.  

Kriegsverletzungen: Körperliche und seelische Narben  

Mykola wurde als Drohnenführer ausgebildet und beschreibt, wie diese Waffen im Verlauf des Krieges eine immer größere Rolle einnahmen. Anders als man annehmen könnte, steuert man als Drohnenführer den Flugkörper nicht aus sicherer, entfernter Distanz, auch hier erlebt man gefährliche Kampfsituationen hautnah. Eindrücklich sprach Mykola im Gespräch über den Zusammenhalt zwischen den Soldaten, über den Verlust von Kameraden und den eigenen Beinen, über die traurigen Schicksale, die sich ereigneten, und die Spuren, die all das hinterlässt.   

Die Verantwortung als Veteran 

Auch Serhiy hat Krieg und die Angst um seine Heimat erlebt. Als Veteran spricht er dennoch nicht über Vergeltung, sondern über Verantwortung: Wer das Leben liebt, nimmt es keinem anderen. Wer Demokratie und Freiheit liebt, greift nicht in die Freiheit anderer ein. Seine Botschaft: Wir müssen Verantwortung dafür übernehmen, Liebe, Menschlichkeit und Respekt zu vermitteln — und sie auch selbst zu leben.   

Die Welt muss man durch den Blickwinkel der Liebe sehen: Liebe zum Leben, zur Demokratie, zur Freiheit und zu anderen Menschen.

Sebastian Schäffer on QNews: Ukraine’s resilience requires sustained European support

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Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), joined QNews’ In Focus to discuss recent developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and their wider implications for European security. 

The interview addressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Serbia, the changing geopolitical environment in the South Caucasus, insecurity in the Black Sea, attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the economic effects of the war inside Russia and beyond. 

On Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade, Schäffer argued that the meeting is unlikely to transform Serbia’s deep energy ties with Moscow immediately. Its significance lies primarily in the fact that two EU candidate countries are engaging directly at the highest political level. He stressed that Serbia will ultimately need to clarify whether it wishes to pursue closer integration with the European Union or retain a position of strategic dependence on Russia. 

Regarding the South Caucasus, Schäffer noted that Russia is no longer the region’s sole arbiter. Armenia’s changing political orientation and Azerbaijan’s efforts to maintain room for manoeuvre point to a more fragmented regional environment. At the same time, he cautioned against assuming that Russian influence has disappeared, noting Moscow’s continuing ability to exert influence, including in Georgia. 

Schäffer also emphasised that threats to shipping in the Black Sea have global consequences. Disruptions to trade routes, particularly for agricultural exports, affect food security and economic stability well beyond the immediate theatre of war, including in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. 

Addressing Ukraine’s preparations for the coming winter, he highlighted the growing pressure created by Russian attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated resilience and an ability to repair damaged infrastructure, but the scale and timing of attacks pose a severe challenge. The speed with which energy facilities can be rebuilt and protected will be decisive in the months ahead. 

The discussion further considered Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics and commercial infrastructure. Schäffer described these as part of Ukraine’s effort to show that Russia’s war is not without consequences for the Russian economy and population. While such strikes are unlikely to decide the war on their own, they demonstrate that Russian rear areas are no longer entirely insulated from its effects. 

On the effects of disrupted grain exports, Schäffer argued that EU emergency support can mitigate some of the immediate pressure on Ukrainian farmers but cannot replace predictable and secure export routes. A sustained reduction in Ukrainian agricultural exports would risk further food insecurity and instability in vulnerable regions. 

Finally, Schäffer underlined that sustained Western support remains central to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and to any credible prospect of negotiations. He stressed that European security, economic stability and humanitarian considerations are directly connected to the outcome of the war. 

The whole interview can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Qa7RLpMfboc&ra=m

Sebastian Schäffer on Russia’s fuel crisis, Patriot missiles and the risk of a provocation against Poland – Interview with War & Politics 24

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In conversation with Maxym Krapivnyy on the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer assessed the latest statements from the Kremlin and their implications for Ukraine and European security. 

The discussion focused on Russia’s growing frustration with the course of the war, the emerging fuel crisis inside the country and the possibility of further hybrid and military escalation. 

Schäffer noted that Moscow’s increasing reliance on strikes against civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities reflects a lack of progress on the battlefield rather than renewed strength. He argued that Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian supply lines and target refineres and other elements of the war economy has begun to bring the conflict home to the Russian population, even as the regime seeks to adapt and absorb these pressures. 

The interview also addressed the debate around a possible nationwide mobilization in Russia following this autumn’s parliamentary elections and the expected licensing of Patriot interceptor missiles for production in Ukraine. Schäffer warned that broader mobilization could temporarily shift momentum at the front but might also deepen domestic discontent with the Kremlin. At the same time, he underlined that robust air defence and credible security guarantees will be essential to deter future attacks, since agreements with the Russian Federation have repeatedly been violated by Moscow in the past. 

Looking beyond Ukraine, Schäffer highlighted the growing importance of hybrid tactics aimed at dividing the European Union and testing NATO’s resolve, including the possibility of armed provocations against Poland designed to probe the responsiveness of Article 5. In this context, he stressed that Ukraine is defending far more than its own territory, arguing that sustained and adequate support for Kyiv remains central to European freedom and security. 

Watch the full interview on YouTube:

IDM Director Weighs In on Iran and Ukraine After NATO Summit Press Conference

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In an interview with Al-Qahera News on 8 July 2026, following the joint press conference of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump at the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), assessed the US administration’s approach to Iran and its implications for Ukraine, highlighting concerns over a lack of strategic clarity. 

Discussing Trump’s remarks at the summit, Schäffer pointed to broader inconsistencies in US foreign policy and questioned the administration’s long-term objectives, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He argued that recent strikes may not have achieved their stated goals and warned that continued uncertainty around Iran could further affect global economic stability, especially given Tehran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. 

Turning to Ukraine, Schäffer assessed the potential impact of additional US weapons deliveries following renewed Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. While Patriot air defence systems would strengthen Ukraine’s ability to protect civilians and infrastructure, he argued that long-range capabilities such as Tomahawk missiles could have greater strategic significance by enabling deeper strikes against military targets. 

Schäffer concluded by emphasizing the fundamental difference between Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself against aggression and Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. 

An excerpt of the interview is available here (in Arabic): https://youtube.com/shorts/XBqkTVmlM5M?si=eVRih_RZjhTwNS7S  

IDM Director discusses NATO summit and future of the war in Ukraine on QNews Egypt

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer returned to the programme In-Focus on QNews Egypt to discuss the upcoming NATO summit and its implications for European security as well as the war in Ukraine. In the interview, Schäffer addressed the evolving priorities of the Alliance, including continued support for Ukraine, deterrence and defence on NATO’s eastern flank, and the broader strategic context for Europe and the transatlantic partnership.  

Particular attention was paid to the tragic milestone of an estimated 2 million casualties resulting from Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, underlining the immense human suffering and long-term consequences of the conflict.  

Schäffer also provided an outlook on possible trajectories of the war and Western support, highlighting the importance of sustained political will, military assistance, and economic resilience. The conversation touched on scenarios for the coming months, the role of allied unity, and the challenges of managing escalation risks while maintaining robust support for Ukraine’s defence and sovereignty.  

The full interview is available online and can be viewed here:  

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on QNews In Focus: Ukraine’s Drone Offensive and the EU’s Strategic Crossroads

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on QNews‘ political analysis programme In Focus on 19 June 2026 to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and their implications for Central Europe and European security architecture. 

Speaking from Vienna Schäffer assessed the strategic significance of Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow’s oil refineries. He argued that the strikes send a clear message: Ukraine is now capable of bringing the war to its aggressor and targeting Russia’s war economy, adding that the strikes may also signal to Central European partners that sustained support for Kyiv could bring a ceasefire agreement closer. 

On the question of Russia’s economic resilience, Schäffer pointed to a notable decline in GDP growth, from approximately 4.9% in 2024 to around 1% in 2025, and highlighted that defence spending now accounts for roughly 30% of the Russian state budget, placing increasing strain on the country’s sovereign wealth fund. Nevertheless, he cautioned that a breaking point in Russia’s war economy is unlikely before 2026 or even 2027. 

Addressing the prospects for peace negotiations, Schäffer was direct: he sees no genuine willingness from the Kremlin to engage in honest dialogue, and therefore no realistic basis for Ukraine to enter into peace talks at this stage. He also flagged a potentially significant development: Belarusian President Lukashenko’s reported appeal to Putin to end the war. A signal, he suggested, that even Moscow’s closest allies may be growing weary of the conflict. 

On European unity, Schäffer identified fragmentation among EU member states as the single most consequential strategic mistake the bloc is currently making. He stressed the importance of reinforcing the EU’s eastern flank, running from the Baltic Sea through the Danube Region to the Black Sea, as an essential pillar of regional and continental security. 

📺 Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/2rSEeMMW9zw