IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer on QNews Think Tank: No Just Peace in Sight, But Ukraine Must Remain at the Table

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer joined the QNews programme Think Tank to discuss the latest developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine, appearing alongside Peter Dickinson, Ukraine Editor at the Atlantic Council. 

On President Zelensky’s offer of direct talks with Putin, Schäffer noted that while the gesture strategically plays on Putin’s insecurities, with the Russian president being, in Schäffer’s words, „too afraid to go anywhere else than Moscow,“ a just peace remains far from the horizon. Any genuine peaceprocess would need to address reparations for damages inflicted on Ukraine and accountability for war crimes. A ceasefire discussion may be possible; justice is another matter entirely. 

On Hungary’s shifted position under new leadership, Schäffer welcomed the dropped veto as a positive signal, but cautioned against talk of fast-tracking EU accession. With roughly 1,800 remaining veto points built into the accession process, removing one obstacle is only the beginning. He pointedto the EU summit on 16 June as the next meaningful milestone and a potential opening of formal negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. 

Regarding Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries on the Baltic coast near St. Petersburg, Schäffer framed these not primarily through the lens of global oil prices, but as a necessary response to over 12 years of Russian aggression and a demonstration of Ukraine’sexpanding long-range capabilities. He emphasised that not a single day in 2026 has passed without Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. 

On NATO’s eastern flank and Italy’s deployment of fighter jets to Romania following drone strikes on the city of Galați, Schäffer argued that strengthening Ukraine’s air defences is itself the most effective way to protect NATO territory. He expressed concern that some voices frame the protection ofRomanian lives as coming at the expense of Ukrainian ones. „We need to protect Ukrainian lives, and by extension we are also protecting NATO territory.“ 

Closing the programme, both guests were asked for a yes or no on peace talks within six months. Schäffer’s answer: „Unfortunately, I agree. I don’t see it.“ 

Watch the full discussion here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPdCTY5RF1o 

Sebastian Schäffer on Russian propaganda and the possibility of a coup in the Kremlin – Interview with War & Politics 24

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In conversation with the YouTube news channel War & Politics 24, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer was asked for his assessment of the latest propaganda statements from the Kremlin. What does Russia’s public announcement that it will withdraw from trilateral negotiations on the war of aggression in Ukraine mean, given that these negotiations have so far served the Kremlin’s interests? And what does the changed tone, even within Russia, reveal about the state of the regime? 

In the interview, Schäffer emphasised that statements from the Kremlin must always be viewed critically and within the specific context of their target audience – historically, he noted, discrepancies between rhetoric and actual actions have often been evident in the context of Kremlin propaganda. Schäffer also pointed out that Russia’s threats must always be viewed within the context of demonstrations of power in both domestic and foreign policy. So whilst nuclear threats and warnings of attacks on the militaryparade on 9 May are intended to project strength domestically, according to Schäffer, these could also be interpreted in foreign policy terms as a sign of growing weakness and a loss of control. Regarding the question of a possible coup in the Kremlin, Schäffer says that there are certainly different factions within the Kremlin who are already considering what a post-Putin Russia might look like – which does not necessarily mean that a coup is imminent, but simply that the possibility of a post-Putin Russia iscoming into focus. On the question of Sergei Shoigu’s role, Schäffer does suggest the possibility of a potential betrayal of Putin in order to save himself. At the same time, however, Schäffer emphasised that it is difficult to look inside the Kremlin from theoutside, and in doing so also referred to the concept of kremlinology. 

  

Watch the full video online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkn-iSq037k 

Péter Techet as an expert at the “Danube Dialogue: Ukraine–Hungary”

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The Educational and Research Laboratory for Countering Disinformation of the Center for Strategic Communications “Ukraine–XXI” at Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, the Educational and Research Laboratory for Countering Disinformation at V. Hetman Kyiv National Economic University, and the Hans Seidel Foundation organized a workshop on May 5 about Ukrainian–Hungarian relations in light of the change of government in Budapest.

Péter Techet gave there an online lecture on the possible changes in Hungarian foreign policy toward Ukraine.

Sebastian Schäffer on Ukraine, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz — Interview with Qnews

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer spoke with Cairo-based Qnews‘ programme In Focus on the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US „Operation Freedom“ initiative, joining the programme from Vienna shortly after returning from a visit to Ukraine. 

Schäffer cautioned against reading Ukraine’s targeting of Baltic Sea oil ports as a direct reaction to events in the Gulf. The strategy, he argued, predates the Hormuz closure and is driven by a consistent logic: disrupting the revenue flows that sustain Russia’s war effort. With oil prices rising sharply following the closure, the stakes of that strategy have only grown. And the root cause, Schäffer stressed, remains clear: had Russia not invaded Ukraine, none of this would be happening. 

On the US response, Schäffer expressed scepticism toward the humanitarian framing of „Operation Freedom,“ pointing to a broader pattern in which the Trump administration generatesinstability before positioning itself as the solution. He noted that Tehran’s wariness of the growing US military presence in the region is, in that context, geopolitically understandable. 

▶ Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/jbQDp0zqtwU 

Peter Techet for The Kyiv Independent on the Beneš Decrees and Orbán’s relationship with Fico

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The Kyiv Independent has published an op-ed by Péter Techet examining how debates over the Beneš Decrees—criticism of which was banned in Slovakia last year—have become an issue in Hungary’s election campaign. While Viktor Orbán appears to value his good relationship with Robert Fico more than the interests of the Hungarian minority, opposition leader Péter Magyar has sharply criticized the government in Bratislava.

The article can be read here: https://kyivindependent.com/how-hungarys-election-campaign-spilled-across-borders/

Meeting with Igor Kogut at IDM

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On 16 March 2026, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer met with Igor Kogut at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) to discuss ongoing cooperation, including the study UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT IN WARTIME: KEY TENDENCIES AND CHALLENGES, and explore further opportunities for collaboration. The meeting also touched upon plans for Schäffer’s upcoming visit to Kyiv at the end of April, where these joint initiatives will be continued.

Shaping the future of EU enlargement: project concludes with final event in Budapest

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The concluding event of the project ‚Central Europe and Future EU Enlargement‚ took place from 10–11 March in Budapest.

During a roundtable discussion with an extended consortium on the premises of the Central European University, partners shared best practices and talked about how to continue the cooperation beyond the scope of the project.

The final presentation of results and panel discussion was part of the Budapest Balkans Forum, which was organised by our project partner the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Research Associate Rebecca Thorne gave an overview of the project activities and highlighted some recommendations from the policy papers, before the panellists took the stage for a discussion on enlargement momentum. The panel featured Krševan Antun Dujmović, expert advisor at the Institute for Development and International Relations; Filip Ilankovic, Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs; Stevan Kandic, Advisor to the Vice-President of the Parliament of Montenegro; and Grigorij Meseznikov, President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO). The discussion was moderated by IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer.

Thank you to the International Visegrad Fund for their support as well as to all partners for the excellent cooperation: Association for International Affairs (Czechia), Europeum (Czechia), Institute of Public Affairs (Poland), Institute for Public Affairs (Slovakia), Albanian Network for Rural Development, Institute for European Policies and Reforms (Moldova), European Policy Centre (Serbia), Ukrainian Institute for International Politics, Foreign Policy Council ‚Ukrainian Prism‘.