Sebastian Schäffer and Sophia Beiter at Cafe Kyiv in Berlin

On 23 February, Sebastian Schäffer and Sophia Beiter attended Cafe Kyiv, a one day conference on the future of Ukraine, organised by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS). German Chancellor Friedrich Merz opened the conference that brought together 170 partner organisations for the fourth time.  

IDM was again represented, this time with the panel “When Ukraine and Moldova Are Ready but Europe Is Not: Why Enlargement Needs EU Citizens” in cooperation with KAS Moldova. Schäffer moderated the discussion with Cristina Cerevate (Head of Cabinet of the Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration in Moldova), Tilman Kuban, (Member of the German Bundestag) and Viktoria Siumar (Member of Parliament of Ukraine); Beiter presented her research on EU enlargement and citizen engagement.  

On the following two days, Schäffer and Beiter also exchanged with representatives of different think tanks and government bodies. They met with researchers of the Institute for European Politics (IEP) (York Albrecht, Jakob Burger, Laura Christoph, Sabine Hoscislawski) as well as the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) (Niklas Balbon, Julia Friedrich). Furthermore, they exchanged with Stefan Meister at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and with Kai-Olaf Lang at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) and had a meeting with Felix Bok, responsible for Hungary and Austria at the Federal Foreign Office. They also exchanged with Gwendolyn Sasse (Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS)) and David Preisendanz (Member of the German Bundestag).  

We would like to thank everyone for their time and interest in an exchange with us, a Special thanks goes to Brigitta Triebl, Head of KAS Moldova, for the excellent cooperation! 

Research Paper: “Ukrainian Parliament in Wartime: Key Tendencies and Challenges”

Russia’s full-scale invasion profoundly reshaped the work of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Between 2022 and 2025, Parliament operated under unprecedented security pressures while simultaneously advancing major reforms, ensuring legislative continuity, and sustaining Ukraine’s EU-integration trajectory. Across all functional dimensions — transparency, legislative adaptation to the EU acquis, and political oversight of the executive — the Rada demonstrated institutional resilience but faced structural limitations exacerbated by wartime governance.

At the onset of martial law, transparency decreased as plenary sessions became closed, broadcasting and transcripts were suspended, and journalists were barred from the parliamentary premises. Yet Parliament continued publishing draft laws, voting data, and transcripts post-factum, preserving a minimum level of informational openness. From late 2023 onward, transparency gradually improved: Question Time to the Government resumed, committee communication practices became more systematic, explanatory materials on adopted laws increased, and restricted zones in the government quarter were reduced. A watershed moment came in May 2024, when accredited journalists regained limited access to the main parliamentary building for the first time since February 2022 — an important milestone for public accountability. At the same time, transparency remains uneven. Committee practices vary widely, accelerated procedures continue to constrain scrutiny, and major transparency reforms — including the 2025 law mandating open committee meetings — remain blocked due to a presidential “pocket veto.”

Despite the war, Ukraine’s EU-integration agenda intensified. The Committee on Ukraine’s Integration into the EU and newly created subcommittees in sectoral committees expanded compliance reviews, while strategic planning instruments — annual legislative plans, EU-flag designations, conformity tables, and official translations — became more systematic. Legislative output grew: between 2019 and 2025, 206 EU-integration draft laws were registered, with 88 adopted. Yet the absence of a dedicated special procedure produced two opposite problems: prolonged stagnation of some core reforms (e.g., SBU reform, justice sector initiatives) and hasty adoption of others without respecting procedural safeguards. Ongoing legislative efforts (Draft Laws Nos. 8242, 13653, 13653-1) aim to introduce a coherent procedure for EU-integration bills, standardise accompanying documents, and strengthen coordination between Parliament and Government. Institutional capacity is also growing: the Research Service and the planned Legislative Drafting Office and Budget Office reflect a transition toward a more professionalised, analytically capable legislature.

Wartime conditions temporarily weakened formal oversight mechanisms. Ministries attended committee meetings irregularly, Temporary Investigative Commissions operated with reduced publicity, and Question Time to the Government was suspended for nearly 20 months. The Cabinet operated for most of the war without an approved Programme of Activities, depriving Parliament of a core instrument of performance evaluation. Political centralisation further strengthened the executive: MPs initiated the vast majority of draft laws, often to bypass Cabinet procedures, and Parliament occasionally delegated normative authority to the Government — a constitutionally sensitive measure justified by wartime exigencies. Since late 2023, however, oversight has begun to recover. Question Time resumed; Temporary Investigative and Temporary Special Commissions (TICs/TSCs) became more active and transparent; and in 2025, the new Government submitted a Programme of Activities, restoring the legal basis for structured reporting. Nevertheless, accountability deficits persist, exemplified by ministers’ non-attendance at committee summons, the President’s veto of penalties for ignoring parliamentary invitations, and the absence of regular reporting by outgoing officials.

Overall, the Verkhovna Rada has demonstrated remarkable resilience under martial law, ensuring continuity of legislative activity, advancing EU-integration reforms, and gradually restoring transparency and oversight mechanisms. Yet structural challenges remain: uneven committee practices, procedural shortcuts in law-making, limited public consultation and lobbying transparency for MPs and the President, and the incomplete institutionalization of oversight. Wartime transparency can be assessed as satisfactory under the circumstances, but building a comprehensive post-war transparency architecture — including full enforcement of the committees’ transparency law, standardised EU-integration procedures, strengthened analytical capacity, and restoration of full parliamentary checks and balances — will be essential to modernising the Ukrainian legislature in line with democratic and European standards.

Research Paper: Ukrainian Parliament in Wartime: Key Tendencies and Challenges

IDM Director for Alghad TV: US Pressure, European Divisions, and the Risk of Imposed Peace

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer discussed the state of Ukraine-Russia negotiations on Alghad TV, focusing on the impact of recent US pressure to accelerate a deal and the resulting implications for Europe. 

Washington’s push has coincided with limited movement, including a prisoner-of-war exchange following talks in Abu Dhabi. However, Russian demands for territorial concessions remain incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution and would require public ratification. At the same time, renewed attacks on civilian infrastructure underline the fragility of the situation and the risks of premature conclusions. 

A sustainable peace remains unlikely without continued US engagement. European states supporting Ukraine are not in a position to compensate individually for a significant reduction in American support. This increases the importance of European unity, which could still generate political and economic leverage if member states act together. 

Internal divisions within the European Union complicate this task. Hungary has aligned itself closely with Washington’s current approach, while other member states emphasise the preservation of a rule-based European security order. Germany and France, in particular, stress that borders cannot be changed through the use of force, a core principle underpinning post-war stability in Europe. The United Kingdom also contributes additional perspectives, particularly on security guarantees. 

Peace arrangements imposed without Ukrainian consent risk entrenching long-term instability rather than ending hostilities. Such outcomes would have far-reaching consequences for European security, economic exchange, and the broader geopolitical environment. 

Full video (Arabic):
🔗 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0hxA54Z3EHc 

Europas Zukunft: IDM-Direktor Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger-Podcast

Sebastian Schäffer, Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM), spricht in einem aktuellen Podcast mit Gunther Fehlinger über zentrale Herausforderungen und Perspektiven für Europas Zukunft in einem komplexen geopolitischen Umfeld. Das Gespräch richtet sich an ein breites Publikum, das sich für die Entwicklung der Europäischen Union, die EU-Erweiterung und regionale Stabilität interessiert. 

Schäffer betont die Bedeutung strategischer Partnerschaften innerhalb Europas und mit den östlichen Nachbarstaaten und analysiert aktuelle Fragen der EU- und NATO-Erweiterung, institutionelle Reformen sowie die Rolle des Donauraums als Brückenkopf zwischen West und Ost. Dabei diskutiert er, welche strukturellen Anpassungen die Union braucht, um langfristig Stabilität, demokratische Resilienz und nachhaltiges Wachstum zu sichern. 

Auf Basis seiner langjährigen Expertise zur europäischen Integration, EU-Erweiterung und zur politischen Dynamik im Donauraum ordnet Schäffer aktuelle Entwicklungen vor dem Hintergrund globaler Machtverschiebungen ein. Er zeigt, warum eine glaubwürdige Erweiterungsperspektive für Ukraine, Republik Moldau und den Westbalkan sowie mehr strategische Kohärenz entscheidend für die Zukunftsfähigkeit Europas sind 

Zum Anhören und Anschauen: 

▶️ YouTube: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM) 
🎧 Spotify: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger Podcast 

Schäffer for Al-Quahera News: Sustainable peace requires robust security guarantees

In a live interview with Al-Qahera News, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer argued that a sustainable peace in Ukraine cannot be reduced to a short-term ceasefire. Instead, it must be anchored in robust and credible security guaranteesdesigned to prevent renewed aggression.

Schäffer stressed that continued and reliable funding for Ukraine’s defence forces remains indispensable if any future agreement is to endure. He referred to recent discussions hosted by the German federal government in Berlin, where long-term security arrangements and burden-sharing among partners were discussed.

A central concern raised in the interview was the asymmetry between strong U.S. pressure for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate a genuine peace, contrasted with serious doubts about whether the Russian Federation is prepared to do the same. Schäffer warned that negotiations risk stagnation as long as Moscow maintains maximalist demands, including calls for Ukraine to cede territory, in some cases territory Russia does not even fully control.

This assessment was reinforced by Dr. Maksym Yali, Kyiv-based professor of international relations, who underlined that such territorial concessions are incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution, making agreement on these terms legally and politically impossible.

Schäffer also emphasized the decisive role Europe will have to play, particularly the European Union, not only in Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU integration but also in shaping and sustaining a future security framework. Among the options discussed were European contributions on the ground to help guarantee any eventual peace agreement.

Without credible security guarantees, Schäffer concluded, hostilities would merely be paused, not ended.

FO° Talks with IDM Director: Sebastian Schäffer Discusses Scenarios for Ukraine and the Strategic Outlook for Europe

Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), was invited back to FO° Talks for a timely discussion with host Rohan Khattar Singh. The conversation took place amid renewed public debate about potential “peace proposals” for Ukraine and heightened speculation following Moscow’s latest demands. As Schäffer emphasised, these statements should not be mistaken for readiness to negotiate but rather understood as an attempt to influence political discourse in Europe and the United States. 

The talk highlighted that the proposals currently circulating go well beyond ceasefire arrangements. They include expectations for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories and the formal recognition of altered borders. Such ideas, if pursued, would challenge the established principles of the European security order and risk normalising the use of force to achieve political objectives. 

During the interview, Schäffer outlined three plausible scenarios for how the war may evolve in the coming years. The first is a frozen conflict, in which large-scale hostilities subside but the risk of renewed fighting remains high. The second is a prolonged war, extending the insecurity and strategic pressure Europe has faced since 2022. The third scenario — Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders — would offer a path to lasting stability, yet under the current balance of forces, Schäffer assesses this outcome as “very unlikely.” 

Regardless of which scenario proves most accurate, Schäffer stressed that Europe must prepare for sustained instability. The next five to ten years, he argued, are likely to be marked by continued threats, uncertainty and political tension, both within the region and in the broader European security landscape. He cautioned that any settlement based on territorial concessions would not resolve the conflict but risk legitimising aggression and setting a dangerous precedent for the continent. 

The full FO° Talks discussion is available here. 

Sebastian Schäffer on Asharq News: “A rushed agreement would endanger Ukraine and Europe alike” 

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer appeared on Asharq News to comment on recent statements suggesting that a peace agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine is imminent. Schäffer urged caution, noting that the unresolved issues, particularly the situation in the Donbas and control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, are fundamental to Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term security. 

He emphasised that credible security guarantees for Ukraine remain unclear, especially against the backdrop of rapidly shifting signals from Washington. Schäffer also criticised the lack of unity within the European Union, where governments in Hungary and Slovakia continue to undermine collective efforts on military assistance, financial support, and the release of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction, which has lately added Belgium to the club of countries hesitating to further help Ukraine. 

According to Schäffer, these divisions risk encouraging the Kremlin to increase pressure on Kyiv, assuming that Western cohesion can be easily broken. He stressed that the consequences extend far beyond Ukraine itself: “This is about the future of the entire European security architecture. A bad deal or forced concessions would fundamentally reshape the continent’s stability.” 

Schäffer called for coordinated action among EU member states and international partners, including Canada, Japan, and other like-minded actors, to prevent any agreement that weakens Ukraine or compromises Europe’s long-term security interests. 

Watch the full interview (in Arabic) here: ضعف الاتحاد الأوروبي يعرقل جهود سلام أوكرانيا | NOW الشرق

IDM Director for Al-Qahera News on “peace negotiations” for Ukraine 

IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer commented for Cairo-based broadcaster Al-Qahera News on the recent secretive talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff on a potential ceasefire plan for Ukraine. In the interview, he stressed that these negotiations are being conducted without direct Ukrainian participation and underlined the principle that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine.  

Schäffer warned that any agreement reached over Kyiv’s head risks undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic legitimacy, especially if it pressures Ukraine into territorial or military concessions that would reward Russian aggression. He highlighted that such a precedent would be dangerous for smaller states more broadly, signalling that great powers can unilaterally redraw borders at their expense.  

At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing importance of robust and predictable support from the European Union and other partners, noting that debates in Washington and European capitals over military aid and security guarantees will decisively shape Kyiv’s room for manoeuvre. For any ceasefire to be credible and sustainable, he argued, Ukraine needs strong, long-term security guarantees and continued political, military and financial backing from its partners. 

Short clip: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/_upFCfxt2ik?si=jh4SgNqIdEdAVLbw 

Full interview: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zx7yDySipWE 

Sebastian Schäffer for Fair Observer on Ukraine’s new defence letter of intent and the impact on European security

In a recent interview for Fair Observer, Sebastian Schäffer, IDM Director, discussed the new defence letter of intent signed by Ukraine for 100 Rafale jets from France and 150 Gripen jets from Sweden. Beyond providing weapons that meet Ukraine’s current needs, these agreements send two positive signals for the future. On the one hand, this shows that France and Sweden believe in Ukraine’s capabilities to defend themselves and are willing to support the country in this process. On the other hand, these agreements illustrate potential cross-border cooperation in defence matters – a positive sign for the future of European security. Sebastian Schäffer highlighted the need to turn into an interconnected defence cooperation, as this sector is still largely nationalised in Europe.

Unfortunately, this momentum for a new defence cooperation has been affected by the disclosure of a major corruption scandal, involving some of the closest associates of Zelenskyy. This scandal is particularly outrageous to the population because it affects vital sectors, such as education and health, which are already seriously threatened by Russian attacks.

Nevertheless, Sebastian Schäffer stressed that Ukraine remains a democratic country fighting corruption and that this scandal should not lead to a withdrawal in support for Ukraine.

You can find the full interview here: FO° Talks: Ukraine’s Rafale and Gripen Deals Overshadowed by Major Corruption Scandal