Funded by Europe, losing to Euroscepticism: The paradox of EU rural policies – Jovan Arkula

In the two decades since the landmark 2004 enlargement, the European Union as a ‘convergence machine’ has functioned with remarkable efficiency in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). National GDPs have climbed steadily, and the region has seen progress in both urban and rural surroundings. However, this overall success masks a deepening internal fracture. A distinct political geography has emerged: pro-European, liberal, and reformist urban centers are increasingly surrounded by rural peripheries characterized by nationalism, Euroscepticism, and populist sentiment. 

More funds, fewer friends  

Let’s have a look at the numbers first: Under the EU Cohesion Policy 2021-2027, more than €390 billion has been allocated to strengthen economic, social, and territorial cohesion within the Union, on top of the €405 billion already invested through the same policy in the 2014-2020 period. The policy accounts for over one third of the EU’s budget, and is designed so that the poorest regions can benefit significantly more from it than the developed ones. The money is everywhere: the Cohesion Fund builds roads and railways, the European Social Fund+ funds vocational training, youth employment schemes, and social inclusion projects – and beyond the Cohesion Policy, the Common Agricultural Policy provides the direct payments that keep small-scale farming viable in rural areas. Technically, the policies are working. GDP per capita in Central and Eastern Europe rose from 41.8% of the EU average in 2010 to 62.4% in 2024. Roads are smoother, water is cleaner, farming more efficient, and the internet is quick and reliable. The facts are undeniable: rural regions are better off thanks to the European Union. Yet, in these same „beneficiary“ regions, Euroscepticism isn’t just surviving – it’s thriving.  

If we look at the other set of numbers, as published in a study by the European Commission in 2020, they show that when considering all electoral districts in Europe, people tend to vote less for anti-EU parties in cities, towns and suburbs than in rural areas: the median vote for parties opposed and strongly opposed to the EU decreases with the degree of urbanization of the electoral district. More recent elections within the CEE region clearly show this: In the Romanian presidential elections of 2025, Nicușor Dan took a pro-Western line, which contrasted with his opponent George Simion’s nationalist and Eurosceptic stance. In the runoff, Dan won all six districts of Bucharest, receiving 70% of the vote among the nearly 1.1 million ballots cast there. He also won in other major cities like Cluj (70%), Brașov (over 60%), Iași and Timiș (both nearly 60%). In comparison, George Simion won his best result in the rural southern county of Gorj and dominated across the less-developed counties of Tulcea and Călărași. 

In Poland, research conducted by the Polish Sociological Review based on the 2023 election data found that younger, better-educated and urban voters disproportionately support the Civic Coalition and The Left, while older, less-educated and rural voters remain the electoral base of right-wing populist and national-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS), which has the most seats in the Polish parliament and an incumbent president of Poland.  

Even in this month’s landslide victory of pro-EU Tisza party in Hungary, far-right Fidesz, who had held power for 16 years, maintained its grip in rural areas in the Northeast (Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg) and a solid number of single constituencies. If we take a closer look at the electoral map, we observe that what almost all those constituencies have in common is that they don’t encompass towns over 15,000 people: Nógrád 2nd constituency, Győr-Moson-Sopron 3rd, Hajdú-Bihar 4th and Fejér 5th are examples of this. This proves that even a national ‘political earthquake’ struggles to penetrate the final frontier of the countryside. 

From Warsaw to Budapest, from Bucharest to Bratislava, the pattern is consistent. Cities vote pro-European, liberal, and reformist. Rural areas vote nationalist, Eurosceptic, and populist. But why? And how did 800billion buy so little loyalty? 

Lost in Translation 

Several structural factors explain why high levels of EU funding have not translated into high levels of EU support in rural areas, but they can all be boiled down to a single one: communication 

The EU’s communication strategy remains largely focused on transparency and administrative compliance. By treating the disbursement of funds as a neutral bureaucratic process, Brussels has left a vacuum in the political narrative, which is often filled with ‘credit hijacking’ by national and local populist governments. 

Furthermore, EU institutions and their national allies have consistently framed European integration as a project of modernity, openness, and cosmopolitan values. In cities, that message lands well, but in the countryside, it often lands badly. When a Brussels official talks about ‘rule of law’ or ‘LGBTQ+ rights’, many rural voters hear something else: urban elites telling them that their traditional communities are backward. Whether that is fair or not is irrelevant, because it is a political reality. Furthermore, the ‘metropolization’ of success has created a brutal brain drain. EU mobility and urban investment have made it easier than ever for the brightest young minds to leave their villages for the capitals. The rural areas are left with an ageing population, crumbling social services, and a deep sense of being left behind in a race they never signed up for.  

The populist right understood this long before Brussels did. Parties like Fidesz, PiS, and Serbia’s SNS did not win the countryside with better economic policies. They won by convincing rural voters that they were on their side against distant, condescending elites who have completely opposite values and lifestyles – whether in Brussels or the nation’s capital. Because the EU lacks a direct communicative presence in the periphery, these contradictions go largely unchallenged at the grassroots level. In many CEE member states, the EU is perceived as a distant, regulatory monolith. In rural areas, the EU is often encountered only through the lens of restrictive environmental regulations or agricultural quotas, while the national populists claim credit for the material benefits of EU funding while simultaneously scapegoating ‘Brussels’ for perceived threats to local sovereignty or traditional values. It is a successful political double-act: quietly absorbing billions in EU subsidies and utilizing that money to maintain local patronage networks. 

Reclaiming the Narrative 

The widening urban-rural gap in Central and Eastern Europe is the greatest internal threat to the stability of the European project in the region. If the periphery continues to view Brussels as an agent of the urban elite, the electoral map will continue to harden into two irreconcilable camps. To prevent this, European development policy must transition from a model of passive disbursement to one of active, localized engagement. 

The first step in this evolution is dismantling the mechanism of ‘credit hijacking’. This requires the decentralization of funding, bypassing the national filters that often serve as bottlenecks for political patronage. By increasing the proportion of funds managed directly by local municipalities and non-governmental organizations, the EU can foster a sense of local ownership. This direct line of funding not only improves transparency but also empowers local leaders, who are the only figures capable of countering populist narratives with local credibility. 

Perhaps even more important is a radical overhaul of its communication strategies, which simply must stop sounding like they were written in Brussels and start reflecting the linguistic and cultural nuances of the CEE heartland. This means shifting budgets away from pan-European advertising and toward local media and community messengers who speak the language of local values. Instead of talking about abstract concepts like ‘European unity’ and ‘rule of law’ – as well as often unwelcome progressive lifestyle mandates –  the message must focus on how integration protects the local way of life, what benefits it brings to the community and its members, and how it makes their lives better in a way that their governments couldn’t on their own. By putting those messages at the forefront, the EU will present itself as motor of positive change it already is, thereby earning the credibility it needs to foster a genuine, bottom-up alignment with the broader spectrum of European values. 

The fundamental disconnect between Brussels and the CEE periphery is, at its core, a failure of political translation. It is finally time to ensure that the strategic purpose of European cooperation is as culturally resonant and clearly articulated as the physical infrastructure it produces. Only by winning this battle of the narrative can the EU hope to bridge the geographical divides that currently fragment the continent’s future.  

Jovan Arkula is an IDM trainee who holds a degree in International Affairs and is currently pursuing an MA in Local Development at the University of Padua.

 

Podiumsdiskussion an der Universität Wien über die ungarischen Parlamentswahlen mit Péter Techet

Das IDM veranstaltete am 19. Jänner gemeinsam mit der Universität Wien eine Podiumsdiskussion über die kommenden ungarischen Parlamentswahlen. Dorothee Bohle, Krisztina Rozgonyi und Péter Techet beleuchteten die Konsequenzen der illiberalen Demokratie in Ungarn, die seit 2010 besteht und tief in Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft verankert ist. Die Diskussion fand an der Universität Wien statt und wurde von Tobias Spöri moderiert.

Techet: Illiberalismus auf legalistischer Grundlage

Techet sprach über die juristischen Aspekte des Regimes und betonte die legale Grundlage sowie die legalistische Rechtsauffassung des Orbán-Systems. Einerseits sei die liberale Demokratie nach 2010 mit ausschließlich legalen Mitteln abgebaut worden: Die Fidesz-Regierung verfügte über die notwendige Zweidrittelmehrheit im Parlament, mit der sie eine neue Verfassung sowie zentrale Gesetze etwa zur Justiz und zu den Medien verabschieden konnte. Für eine neue Regierung sei es daher äußerst schwierig, diese Entwicklung rückgängig zu machen, da sie entweder selbst eine Zweidrittelmehrheit erringen müsste oder den Abbau des Systems nur mit – aus rein formalistischer Perspektive – illegalen Mitteln erreichen könne.

Andererseits verstehe Fidesz das Recht, so Techet, nicht als Wertesystem zur Förderung des gesellschaftlichen Zusammenhalts, sondern als rein technisches Instrument zur Durchsetzung individueller Interessen. Techet bezeichnete diese Denkweise als „legalistischen Autoritarismus“. Die Fidesz sei eine „Partei von Juristen“, welche legale Tricks besonders geschickt einzusetzen wisse. Selbst Korruption sei in Ungarn legalisiert worden, weshalb eine neue Regierung Verantwortliche nur durch rückwirkende Gesetzgebung oder andere politische Mittel zur Rechenschaft ziehen könne.

Rozgonyi und Bohle: Kontrollierte Medien und Wirtschaft

Krisztina Rozgonyi schilderte die eintönigen Medienverhältnisse in Ungarn: Abgesehen von einigen Printmedien und Online-Zeitungen stehe der gesamte Medienmarkt – öffentlich-rechtlich wie privat – unter der Kontrolle von Fidesz. Rozgonyi, die Ungarn aus politischen Gründen verlassen musste, wies darauf hin, dass Fidesz im Wahlkampf gezielt Desinformation, Fake News sowie KI-generierte Bilder und Tonaufnahmen einsetze. Daher sei kaum feststellbar, auf welcher Informationsgrundlage die Menschen ihre Wahlentscheidung treffen würden.

Dorothee Bohle analysierte die wirtschaftlichen Aspekte des Regimes, insbesondere den durch Korruption geförderten Aufbau einer „nationalen Bourgeoisie“ sowie die Nutzung ausländischer Investitionen – etwa der deutschen Auto- oder der chinesischen Batterieindustrie – im Dienste der politischen Macht. Sie betonte zudem die problematische Rolle der Europäischen Union, insbesondere der Europäischen Volkspartei, die Orbán aus wirtschaftlichen Interessen oder politischem Opportunismus zu lange unterstützt habe.

Was kann man tun?

In der Debatte waren sich alle drei Panelist*innen einig, dass Péter Magyar nach wie vor eine „Black Box“ darstelle. Sein Erfolg garantiere angesichts der tiefen Verankerung der Fidesz-Macht in Institutionen, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft keineswegs den Abbau des Regimes. Bohle meinte sogar, Magyar könne höchstens eine Veränderung innerhalb des Systems bewirken, nicht jedoch eine Veränderung des Systems selbst – schon allein deshalb, weil er aus diesem System hervorgegangen sei. Techet betonte, dass Magyar nicht wegen seiner Persönlichkeit oder seines bislang weitgehend unbekannten Programms gewählt werde, sondern ausschließlich deshalb, weil er derzeit der Einzige sei, der Orbán ablösen könne. Daher seien selbst liberale oder linke Wähler*innen bereit, für einen konservativen Politiker wie Magyar zu stimmen.

Techet bezeichnete Magyars Strategie als „Anti-System-Populismus gegen ein illiberales System“. Magyar bediene sich populistischer Rhetorik und richte sich gegen „das gesamte System“, einschließlich der „alten Opposition“. In einer illiberalen Demokratie wie Ungarn könne dies jedoch eine positivere Bedeutung haben als in liberalen Demokratien. Magyar mobilisiere Wut – jedoch nicht gegen die liberale Demokratie, wie viele populistische Parteien in Europa, sondern gegen ein bestehendes illiberales System. Ob ein solches System überhaupt noch durch Wahlen abgelöst werden könne, so Techet, sei allerdings fraglich. Zudem betonte Techet, dass eine neue Regierung ohne die zur Verfassungsänderung erforderliche Zweidrittelmehrheit faktisch handlungsunfähig wäre.

Abschließend stellte das Publikum zahlreiche Fragen zur Rolle der Auslandsungarn, zu den Möglichkeiten eines legalen Abbaus des Regimes sowie zu Magyars Plänen hinsichtlich der strafrechtlichen Verfolgung von Korruptionsfällen.

Foto: Malwina Talik

Without a Just Peace, There Is Just Peace – Sebastian Schäffer

In the latest op-ed on the IDM Blog, Sebastian Schäffer reflects on the debate about how to achieve peace in Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. While all parties and their supporters call for peace, their visions of what it should look like differ dramatically. Do we seek just peace in the sense of merely ending hostilities, or just peace in the sense of a fair and sustainable settlement? This is the central question the op-ed explores. 

“If accepting the temporary occupation of part of its territory is what ensures Ukraine’s survival as an independent sovereign state, then so be it,” said Czech President Petr Pavel to the BBC in August 2025. While his remarks caution against pressuring Kyiv to reconquer all territory at once, they also raise a more urgent question, especially after the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin: what kind of peace are we preparing for Ukraine and for Europe? 

International diplomacy often presents the word “peace” as the ultimate goal. . But for Ukraine, after more than a decade of Russian aggression culminating in the full-scale invasion of 2022, peace is not simply about ending violence. It is about ensuring that it does not lay the foundation for future atrocities. 

There is a difference between peace and a just peace. The former can be imposed; the latter must be earned. Unless justice is part of the post-war settlement, any peace agreement risks becoming a prelude to renewed conflict by rewarding aggression and silencing those who have suffered. 

The Legal Legacy of Lviv 

This is not a new argument. It is grounded in the intellectual and moral legacy of Lviv and whose jurists shaped international law as we know it today. 

Born within three years of one another – Hersch Lauterpacht (1897) and Raphael Lemkin (1900) – both studied law at the University of Lemberg/Lwów, which was back then part of Austria-Hungary and later the Polish Republic. They were shaped by the same legal traditions and the same brutal experiences of nationalism, displacement and genocide. Both became architects of a world in which peace would depend on justice, understood as an international rules based order, enshrined in what later would become the UN Charta. 

Lauterpacht introduced the concept of “crimes against humanity”, insisting that individuals – not just states – must be held accountable for atrocities. Lemkin, haunted by the extermination of his own family in the Holocaust, coined the term “genocide” and campaigned for its recognition as a distinct international crime. Their legacies live on in the Geneva Conventions, in the Rome Statute, and in today’s efforts to prosecute war crimes. 

But these were not merely legal innovations. They were moral imperatives born from Europe’s darkest hours and aimed at preventing their repetition. 

The Risk of Appeasement 

Today, the calls for a swift peace in Ukraine are growing louder. Some argue that the war has reached a stalemate and that compromise – perhaps involving territorial concessions or frozen conflict lines – might be the pragmatic path forward. 

But this line of thinking ignores a painful truth: a peace that leaves parts of Ukraine under foreign occupation, legitimizes mass deportations and erases war crimes is appeasement. And history has taught us the cost of appeasing violent authoritarianism. 

Such a settlement would not only betray Ukraine; it would ultimately dismantle the very foundations of the international legal order established after World War II. It would send a message to other aggressors that international norms are negotiable, that might makes right, and victims will not see justice. 

Ukraine is not simply defending its territory; it is defending the principle that law, not force, should govern the world. The concepts developed in Lviv by Lauterpacht and Lemkin demand to be more than historical footnotes. They must remain the foundation of peacebuilding today. 

Justice in the Voices of Witnesses 

This demand for justice is not limited to courtrooms or legal conferences. It echoes most powerfully through the testimonies of those whose lives have been shattered by Russia’s war. 

In Looking at Women Looking at War, the late Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina – who was posthumously awarded with the UK Orwell Prize for Political Writing – assembled essays, interviews and fragments documenting the lives and losses of Ukrainian women. These are not passive accounts. They are acts of resistance. Amelina and her contributors wrote not merely to remember, but to ensure that the world does not forget. 

Amelina herself was killed in a Russian missile attack in Kramatorsk in 2023, after retrieving a war crimes diary from fellow writer Volodymyr Vakulenko, abducted and murdered during occupation. Her work and her death remind us that peace must include truth, recognition and dignity. Anything less is silence. 

Europe’s responsibility and Ukraine’s moral leadership 

The European Union (EU) has shown extraordinary solidarity with Ukraine, from military aid to opening accession talks. But a just peace will require more than arms and infrastructure. It demands sustained support for accountability mechanisms, transitional justice and the voices of victims. 

The EU’s engagement on these fronts – through the documentation of war crimes, support for the International Criminal Court and dialogue on transitional justice – must remain central to Ukraine’s integration process. Ukraine is not just aspiring to join the EU; it is already defending European values, often more fiercely than some existing members. 

Peace must be built on this foundation. 

The choice ahead 

On 25 June 2025, Ukraine and the Council of Europe have signed an agreement for a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine to prosecute Russian leaders. The crime of aggression concerns the decision to launch armed force against another state in breach of the United Nations Charter. While the International Criminal Court (ICC) has jurisdiction to investigate war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide committed in Ukraine, it currently lacks the mandate to prosecute the crime of aggression in this context due to jurisdictional constraints. A Special Tribunal is therefore needed to address this legal gap. These twin developments underscore what Lviv’s legacy made clear: peace without justice is hollow. 

The effort to document atrocities, to build new legal frameworks, and to amplify voices like Amelina’s is not symbolic. It is the groundwork for lasting peace. The recent Trump–Putin meeting only reinforced this point. By framing peace as a deal between leaders rather than as a process rooted in justice and accountability, it is rewarding aggression and inviting further atrocities. The effort to document war crimes, to build new legal frameworks, and to amplify voices like Amelina’s is not symbolic. It is the groundwork for lasting peace.  

The foundations were laid in Lemberg, by Lauterpacht and Lemkin. They are being rebuilt in Kyiv, Bucha, Kharkiv and Lviv by those who continue to believe that justice is not the opposite of peace, but its precondition. 

Without a just peace, there is just peace – a temporary ceasefire in disguise, destined to erupt again. 

 

Sebastian Schäffer is director of the IDM.

IDM Short Insight 45: Lithium, Democracy & EU popularity in Serbia

What’s the latest in the debate about the controversial Jadar lithium mining project in Serbia? Why did the National Convention on the EU, a Serbian civil society platform, send a letter to the European Commission? Watch the most recent IDM Short Insights to find out! Rebecca Thorne (IDM) and Strahinja Subotic (CEP) reporting from Belgrade.

Transcript:

Last week, Serbian civil society sent a letter to the European Commission about the controversial lithium mining project, which has already been the subject of large-scale protests in Serbia.

Why is this important?

This is very important because the National Convention on the EU represents the voice of Serbian citizens, of Serbian society, as a platform that gathers several hundred civil society organizations, and that’s why their voice really matters.

What is the letter about?

The letter cautions against the inclusion of the lithium mining project on the list of strategic projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act. This EU regulation came into force last year to ensure that the EU has secure and sustainable access to the key resources it needs to achieve its objectives in the energy, digital, defence and aerospace industries. Selected strategic projects will receive financial support and benefit from shorter permitting procedures. Lithium is defined as critical for the energy transition due to its use in electric cars and in the renewable energy sector. And one of the biggest deposits of lithium in Europe is in an EU neighbouring country, Serbia.

What concerns does the letter raise?

Essentially, the concerns expressed by the National Convention stem from three sub-concerns. The first one is related to the already weak rule of law in Serbia. They believe the project will further weaken our democracy given that we don’t have a good oversight and that it could breed corruption. Second, they are afraid of the environmental impact of the project. The Rio Tinto company doesn’t have a good track record and people know it here. And that’s why two-thirds, basically even more, of our population disapproves of the project. So environmental issues are getting more and more traction here. And thirdly, they are afraid that this will turn the negotiation process of Serbia into a transactional game. That this will further boost Vučić’s, or our president’s, external legitimacy. And that’s something they want to avoid given the ongoing historical developments in Serbia vis-à-vis the student protests.

What happens next?

The European Commission’s response to the letter could shape Serbia’s future. Serbia started accession negotiations with the EU in 2014, and now, over 10 years later, public polls are already showing more opposition than support for the EU. Given that so many Serbians are strongly against the lithium mining project, if the EU ignores the letter, it risks making itself even more unpopular among Serbian citizens, with the next wave of protests directed against the EU and potentially jeopardising Serbia’s future of European integration.

Malwina Talik for Polskie Radio about immigration in CEE

The Central Eastern European economies lack skilled workers. One possible solution to this problem could be immigration. However, many political forces denounce it and portray it as a potential threat. So, will economic needs or political calculation prevail? Jakub Kukla discussed this with our colleague Malwina Talik in an interview “Politisches Kalkül oder wirtschaftliche Bedürfnisse: Die Crux mit der Migration” for the German-language channel of Polskie Radio (Polish Radio). 

Listen to the whole interview here.

Péter Techet für Napunk (Denník N) über „Patrioten für Europa“

Im Artikel der ungarischsprachigen Ausgabe der slowakischen Tageszeitung „Denník N“ analysierte Péter Techet die neue Fraktion „Patrioten für Europa“, welche im Europäischen Parlament mit rechtradikalen Parteien unter anderem auch aus Ungarn, Tschechien und Österreich entstanden war. Er meint, dass die neue Fraktion eigentlich ein Rebranding der früheren Fraktion „Identität und Demokratie“ (ID) darstellt, weil die meisten Mitgliederparteien aus dieser Fraktion kommen. Das Rebranding ermöglicht aber Viktor Orbán und Andrej Babiš, die bei der ID noch nicht dabei waren, die neue Fraktion als ihr Erfolg zu „verkaufen“. Dass auch Marine Le Pen letztendlich bei dieser Gruppierung blieb, wertete Techet als Entscheidung von Le Pen gegen einen moderaten Weg, den etwa Giorgia Meloni und ihre Fraktion „Europäische Konservative und Reformer“ (ERC) eingeschlagen hatte. Obwohl die neue Fraktion „Patrioten“ die drittstärkste Kraft im neuen Europäischen Parlament wird, rechnet Techet nicht damit, dass sie die europäische Politik wesentlich bestimmen kann, weil die informelle Koalition zwischen der Europäischen Volkspartei (EPP), den Sozialisten (S&D) und den Liberalen (Renew) weiterhin über die Mehrheit verfügt bzw. weil auch die rechtsradikalen Parteien, etwa in der Frage zum Ukrainekrieg, gespalten sind.

Der Artikel (auf Ungarisch) kann hier gelesen werden.

IDM at the 11th Danube Participation Day

On 19 June the 11th Danube Participation Day took place in TU the Sky Vienna. During the Agora, participants were invited to present their current projects and NGOs. The IDM, represented by Research Associate Sophia Beiter and trainee Francesco Danieli, used this opportunity to present the project EUact2!

Here you can find our presented poster: EUact2 posters

Here you can find all presented projects in the Online Agora.

Malwina Talik im ZiB2-Gespräch über die Liberalisierung des Abtreibungsgesetzes in Polen

Malwina Talik (IDM) war am 25. Jänner in der ZiB2 bei Margit Laufer zu Gast. Dort hat sie die Pläne zur Liberalisierung des Abtreibungsgesetzes in Polen analysiert und mögliche Hürden besprochen.

Sehen Sie sich das Interview hier an.

Hoffen auf Europa: alte und neue Versprechen einer gemeinsamen Zukunft

70 Years IDM: Slovenia 

Gespräch mit dem deutschen Botschafter in Slowenien Adrian Pollmann im Rahmen der Sommerakademie des Max Weber-Programmes der bayerischen Landesbegabtenförderung (Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes) 

23. August 2023, 15:00 Uhr

Juristische Fakultät, Poljanski nasip 2, 2000 Ljubljana