Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), joined QNews’ In Focus to discuss recent developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and their wider implications for European security. 

The interview addressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Serbia, the changing geopolitical environment in the South Caucasus, insecurity in the Black Sea, attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the economic effects of the war inside Russia and beyond. 

On Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade, Schäffer argued that the meeting is unlikely to transform Serbia’s deep energy ties with Moscow immediately. Its significance lies primarily in the fact that two EU candidate countries are engaging directly at the highest political level. He stressed that Serbia will ultimately need to clarify whether it wishes to pursue closer integration with the European Union or retain a position of strategic dependence on Russia. 

Regarding the South Caucasus, Schäffer noted that Russia is no longer the region’s sole arbiter. Armenia’s changing political orientation and Azerbaijan’s efforts to maintain room for manoeuvre point to a more fragmented regional environment. At the same time, he cautioned against assuming that Russian influence has disappeared, noting Moscow’s continuing ability to exert influence, including in Georgia. 

Schäffer also emphasised that threats to shipping in the Black Sea have global consequences. Disruptions to trade routes, particularly for agricultural exports, affect food security and economic stability well beyond the immediate theatre of war, including in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. 

Addressing Ukraine’s preparations for the coming winter, he highlighted the growing pressure created by Russian attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated resilience and an ability to repair damaged infrastructure, but the scale and timing of attacks pose a severe challenge. The speed with which energy facilities can be rebuilt and protected will be decisive in the months ahead. 

The discussion further considered Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics and commercial infrastructure. Schäffer described these as part of Ukraine’s effort to show that Russia’s war is not without consequences for the Russian economy and population. While such strikes are unlikely to decide the war on their own, they demonstrate that Russian rear areas are no longer entirely insulated from its effects. 

On the effects of disrupted grain exports, Schäffer argued that EU emergency support can mitigate some of the immediate pressure on Ukrainian farmers but cannot replace predictable and secure export routes. A sustained reduction in Ukrainian agricultural exports would risk further food insecurity and instability in vulnerable regions. 

Finally, Schäffer underlined that sustained Western support remains central to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and to any credible prospect of negotiations. He stressed that European security, economic stability and humanitarian considerations are directly connected to the outcome of the war. 

The whole interview can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Qa7RLpMfboc&ra=m