Energizing Cross-Border Cooperation in Central Europe

How can Central Europe cooperate most effectively on the energy transition? Michael Stellwag and Rebecca Thorne put the spotlight on CES7 (Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia). 

In the lead up to the European elections, the continent witnessed a backlash against green policies. The European Green Deal, which was introduced four years ago and outlines the continent’s path to climate neutrality by 2050, came under particular scrutiny. Integral to the Green Deal is the energy transition, including issues such as where the energy resources come from, how power is generated and who can access the final products. 

While the Greens did indeed lose influence in Germany, France and Belgium, they retained their seats in Austria and even gained their first seats in Croatia and Slovenia. Indeed, the seven Central European states of the EU – Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia (CES7) – are faced with the tangible effects of climate change, geopolitical instability and economic challenges, which necessarily provokes discussion about the decarbonisation of the energy sectors in the region along with questions of security and affordability. Effective cross-border cooperation is key to solving this conundrum. 

In the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the knock-on effects on the prices and supply of energy across Europe, it may appear worthwhile pursuing the goal of self-sufficiency at national level to reduce dependency and the corresponding risk of vulnerability. However, not every country has the capacity to meet all their energy needs through domestic power generation. While some countries possess an abundance of natural energy resources such as wind, water and sun, others run the risk of continuing the detrimental resource exploitation of coal mining. Power generation from coal still dominates the energy landscape of countries with a history of mining, accounting for 44% of the total electricity generation in Czechia and 70% in Poland. Instead of maintaining or even exacerbating this trend, regional cooperation provides alternatives, some of which remain controversial, while others offer clear benefits. 

Diversification and bridge technologies: different approaches 

First of all, cooperation should not come at the cost of security. The region’s historical energy partnership with Russia has highlighted its vulnerability: reducing this dependence is crucial. The EU attempted to enforce immediate diversification by introducing an oil embargo against Russia in 2022. However, the Central European states without a sea border – Austria, Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia pushed for an exemption, resulting in the continuation of imports of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine 

Regarding the gas supply, even though the proportion of Russian pipeline gas in EU imports has fallen from over 40% in 2021 to currently 8% in the EU as a whole, the share in parts of Central Europe remains higher. Austria and Hungary are currently the most dependent on gas from Russia and have fought most intensively against possible EU sanctions. In Austria, the share of Russian gas in the total supply has not fallen significantly since the attack on Ukraine due to a non-transparent long-term supply contract that was extended in 2018 and to which, until recently, not even members of the government had access.  

The response of these states to the energy supply crisis has been different. The four Visegrad states are primarily focusing on diversifying both their oil and gas suppliers in order to reduce their dependence on Russia without significantly reducing their consumption. Poland is using the Baltic Pipe as well as importing more from the USA, while increasing the capacity of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and pipeline infrastructure. Slovakia and Hungary are increasingly sourcing oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, with security of supply being a priority – yet it is important to note that a certain amount of imports from these countries comes from Russia anyway. Czechia is also making efforts to diversify as well as focusing on energy efficiency measures. 

In an example of minilateral cooperation, Austria has been investing in the LNG terminal on the Croatian island of Krk. This terminal has already existed for some time but is now being expanded far beyond the national requirements of Croatia in order serve as a regional hub. Poland has also been enlarging its LNG capabilities from 5 billion m³ a year via its Świnoujście terminal, aiming to double its capacity with the expansion and planned new construction in Gdańsk. The trend is clear: no reduction in gas, but the reduction of dependence on one single country. Yet a decrease in both would be possible with more intensive coordination and more coherent planning within the group – especially as investing in gas projects poses the danger of Central Europe tying itself further into a dependence on a resource that is ultimately a fossil fuel. 

Nuclear power remains a contentious issue, with many convinced it is the way forward to reducing dependency on fossil fuels. In a further example of cross-border cooperation, Slovenia shares its nuclear power station with Croatia, which is in an earthquake zone and cannot build its own without compromising safety. Slovakia, Hungary and Czechia have also opted to invest in nuclear technologies: 59.7%, 44% and 36.6% of their respective electricity generation comes from nuclear. Hungary furthermore intends to increase this percentage with a new power plant that is to be built using Russian state funding. Poland currently has no domestic nuclear energy production but is developing plans to build its first nuclear power station. 

However, others remain wary of a technology that has the potential to cause widespread harm. Austria is one of few outspoken opponents in Central Europe following the referendum of 1978 and subsequent law against generating nuclear power. Having set a goal to source 100% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, Austria moreover intends to show that the green transition is possible without nuclear energy. 

Fast-growing markets 

The renewable energy markets have been rapidly growing, especially the solar industry, with the demand for photovoltaic energy busting market expectations across Europe. There is also significant potential for energy generation from other renewable sources in Central Europe. Poland has begun to make use of the wind on its northern coast with its first offshore farm currently under construction, which is anticipated to generate 1.1GW. Nonetheless, there is still a lot of room for growth, with estimated potential for up to 33GW. Likewise, the Adriatic Sea offers considerable offshore wind power that is not being utilised. While it has been agreed that no wind farms will be built on Croatia’s islands, there is still an area of 29,000 km² that could be developed without encroaching on high-impact zones 

Furthermore, there are natural geothermal heat reservoirs across the region. Indeed, following the European Parliament’s recent call for an EU geothermal energy strategy, the European Committee of the Regions released an Opinion on the “great potential” of geothermal for both cities and regions. To give three examples from the region: in Poland, geothermal reservoirs have been found in around 50% of the country’s area, particularly in central and northwestern Poland. Hungary has already quadrupled its use of geothermal energy since 2010 and is now planning to double its use again by 2030, while Slovenia has been developing a pilot geothermal project that only requires one dry well for operation. 

Prioritise the grid 

With such promising potential of renewables, both large- and small-scale, what is preventing an exponential growth of the clean energy sector? The supply chain is currently not the limiting factor in terms of what is possible. While the manufacturing of solar panels is at present dominated by China, the EU has established initiatives such as the Net Zero Industry Act and the European Solar Charter, which aim to support solar manufacturing in Europe.  

Instead, with a rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector, the grid is the main bottleneck. Energy systems are largely centralised through national grids, which currently do not have the capacity to integrate the rapidly expanding renewable sector. Sectors that were predominantly running on fossil fuels are now being converted to electricity. To further complicate the problem, the grid in Poland, for example, is concentrated on regions in the south of the country that produced energy from coal, whereas the up-and-coming renewable sector is focused on the north. Moreover, the grid does not offer sufficient capacity for large projects at sea. 

Cooperation among the countries of Central Europe would allow a pooling of renewable resources, which is indispensable given the fluctuating nature of supply and demand inherent to renewable energy. Within this partnership, a priority must be the full synchronisation of the grid across the region as well as the expansion of cross-border grid interconnectors. In particular, the triangle between Austria, Hungary and Slovenia has been identified as critical 

Huge potential 

The European Green Deal promises long-term potential for growth, but currently the transition requires significant financial investment, challenges the economies and could threaten established industries in this underperforming region. Among some governments and sections of the population in the Central European countries there are narratives that they are second-class countries within the EU. Many regulations are seen as originating from Western European countries and Brussels, which member states then have to implement regardless of economic feasibility, resulting in a sluggish implementation of individual EGD regulations. Nonetheless, renewable energy sources, even in the year of installation, are cheaper than fossil fuels. In 2022, the global average cost of solar energy was 29% lower than the cheapest fossil fuel option, while the cost of onshore wind energy was 50% lower. An integrated grid would also boost price competitiveness as cheaper, cleaner electricity from neighbouring countries in the region becomes available to consumers. 

Central Europe has significant potential for a green energy transition, as well as for a more dynamic economy and policymaking than is often assumed. Cooperation is essential to accelerate progress – whether a pooling of financial, knowledge or human resources. With the rapid growth of renewables and increasing electrification of the energy sectors, the expansion and improved international interconnectivity of the grid must be a priority not only for the EU, but also on regional level. 

Rebecca Thorne is a research associate at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) in Vienna. Her research focus is climate, energy and the environment in Central Europe and the EU candidate countries. 

Michael Stellwag is a research associate at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Vienna. Having studied political science in Vienna and Tallinn, he now specialises in politics in Central and Eastern Europe and in EU foreign, security and defence policy. Professional projects have taken him to numerous countries in the region. 

 

Both authors attended the expert workshopCentral Europe Plus – Bridge technologies with regard to a sustainable energy supply organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Zagreb. The workshop series has existed since 2021 and focuses on the role of Central European States for the future of the EU. It aims to bring together decision-makers and researchers from the countries concerned and to present positions and demands from these countries in Brussels. In 2024, the project has been developed further to include other regions as well, hence the workshop title Central Europe Plus. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daniel Martinek über die politische Radikalisierung in der Slowakei für ORF und Kleine Zeitung

Im Nachgang des Attentats auf den Ministerpräsident der Slowakei Robert Fico, sprach Daniel Martínek mit dem ORF und der Kleinen Zeitung über die politische Radikalisierung und Frustration in der slowakischen Gesellschaft.

Die Artikel können sie bei orf.at und kleinezeitung.at lesen.

Darüber hinaus wurden Martineks Analysen in der gedruckten Ausgabe der Kleinen Zeitung veröffentlicht.

IDM Short Insights 34: Presidential Elections in Slovakia

 

On 6 April 2024, the second round of presidential elections took place in Slovakia. Peter Pellegrini, the leader of the government coalition party HLAS, defeated Ivan Korčok, the opposition candidate. On location in Bratislava, Daniel Martínek analyses the main reasons behind Pellegrini’s victory and what implications it will have for both domestic politics and Slovakia’s position on the international stage.


Daniel Martínek on the recent worrying developments in Slovakia

Daniel Martínek (IDM) analyses Slovakia’s recent democratic decline under the new government coalition led by SMER party. Robert Fico’s return marks systemic changes, including dismantling the Special Prosecutor’s Office and ideological battles eroding democratic institutions. With international isolation looming and media crackdowns, President Čaputová emerges as a democratic bulwark. The upcoming presidential election becomes pivotal, determining Slovakia’s democratic trajectory amidst Fico’s power grab. 

Read the article in German on DerStandard: Slowakei: Robert Ficos Comeback und der Niedergang der Demokratie 

Read the article in English on Eastblog: In the Shadows of Illiberalism: Slovakia’s Democratic Struggle under Fico’s Resurgence 

Der slowakische Ministerpräsident Robert Fico ist das jüngste Problem der EU

Daniel Martínek (IDM) erläutert für den Fair Observer die Hintergründe der aktuellen Proteste in der Slowakei und beschreibt die ersten Schritte der Regierung des alt-neuen Ministerpräsidenten Robert Fico. Kritiker argumentieren, dass die vorgeschlagenen Reformen darauf abzielen, die Macht der Smer-Partei zu festigen und Ficos Netzwerk zu schützen. Ficos nationalistische Agenda stößt auf Widerstand sowohl bei inländischen Protesten als auch bei der EU. Die bevorstehende Präsidentschaftswahl ist daher umso entscheidender für die demokratische Zukunft des Landes. 

Lesen Sie den Artikel hier. 

Dynamics of the Visegrad Group. Navigating Political Shifts, Challenges and Prospects for EU Enlargement

The upcoming European Council meeting on December 14–15 will see key decisions made on EU enlargement – will the Visegrad Group (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) stay (dis)united? Kinga Brudzinska explains what can be expected in her newest piece on the IDM blog. 

The political differences in the Visegrad Four (V4) countries that emerged as a result of the elections in Poland (15 October 2023) and Slovakia (30 September 2023) will not significantly impact the dynamics of cooperation among the group. The format remains in crisis due to Hungary’s pro-Russia foreign policy stance and its sceptical approach to the EU’s pro-Ukraine policy direction.

The upcoming European Council meeting on December 14–15, which will see key decisions made on EU enlargement, will once again highlight the lack of unity and cohesion among V4 group members, with Hungary being the outlier. As a result, the V4 will continue to serve as a platform for regional cooperation, but one should not expect a revival of coordinated foreign or European policy as seen in response to the 2015 migration crisis or the “Nutella crisis” in 2017 when the V4 mobilised to fight against the “double standards” of imported food sold in their countries.

What is more, in the long run, the ideological differences are not likely to divide the countries that created the V4, regardless of the political preference of ruling governments. For example, the International Visegrad Fund (IVF), co-managed by V4 countries and supporting regional cooperation projects in the region, or formats such as Think Visegrad—V4 Think Tank Platform, a hub of V4 joint analysis, remain an important aspect of cooperation. On the other hand, there is a threat that due to persisting political differences, the individual V4 countries will seek to engage in alternative formats of regional cooperation. For example, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will most likely invest in the development of the Slavkov Triangle or Central Five Initiative (C5), involving Austria. Poland will focus on rebuilding relations within the Weimar Triangle and will remain active within the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) until the end of President Andrzej Duda’s term in 2025.

What will change and what will not

Poland and the Czech Republic will not allow Hungary, and perhaps Slovakia, to appropriate the V4 as a Eurosceptic or even anti-Western platform. Furthermore, Slovakia will not replace Poland to the same extent as an important partner in activating the V4 format or advocating Slovakia’s own position on the international stage. After its initial declaration, Slovakia will most probably not stick to all its electoral promises related to withholding military aid to Ukraine or pursuing a more assertive European policy. This is because Slovakia does not have a tradition of conducting proactive foreign policy, so it is unlikely Bratislava would use its veto power in Brussels to back Hungary. As the V4’s only eurozone country, Slovakia traditionally advocates for a constructive European policy based on consensus. Robert Fico demonstrated such an approach during his previous term.

Polish-Hungarian relations will not improve, and Hungary will be isolated within the V4 over Russia. Prime Minister Orban deliberately plays the role of a disruptor in the EU and NATO decision-making process, openly challenging the model of liberal democracy and steering the country towards an authoritarian regime. On the other hand, soon-to-be new/old Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is known for his critical stance towards Viktor Orban. Bilateral disputes between Slovakia and Hungary (related to Orban’s controversial historical policies) further complicate the situation and isolate Hungary within the V4.

The V4 also faces an image problem in the EU, with a prevailing negative perception of its member countries. Therefore, Poland is not likely to heavily leverage the V4 in the coming years. In recent years, other formats such as the Bucharest Nine (B9), Three Seas Initiative (3SI), Slavkov Triangle, or Central Five Initiative (C5) have gained prominence, with V4 countries actively participating.

Finally, Poland is not necessarily seen by other Visegrad countries as a leader in the region. Poland’s reputation has also been damaged due to the deterioration of the rule of law (Slovakia, under the previous government, became more sceptical of Poland’s actions and pushed V4 activities aside) and the conflict with the Czech Republic over the Turow coal mine.

To sum up, looking back on 2023 and trying to foresee the developments on the international stage in 2024, we can be sure that the V4 will stay on the map of regional groupings in the EU in the years to come and will keep being used as a passive platform for regional cooperation. However, one should not expect a revival of coordinated foreign or European policy among the V4 unless Hungary adjusts its stance on Russia to align with the European mainstream.

Robert Fico Returns: Will Slovakia Become the New Hungary?

Left-wing populist Robert Fico, who was removed from power in Slovakia in 2018 after corruption scandals, has returned to power and formed a coalition with leftist and nationalist parties, which could have significant implications for Central Europe and the European Union.

Read the whole article by Daniel Martínek and Péter Techet here.

The Slovaks Opted for Stability and Peace – Will It Work?

For months, Slovaks have been worried about the chaos and confusion affecting their country. Three and a half years after the last parliamentary elections, Slovakia stands at a pivotal juncture in its political journey. 

To find out more about the political situation in Slovakia, continue reading Kinga Brudzińska’s article:

The Slovaks Opted for Stability and Peace – Will It Work?

En quête de stabilité et de paix : les Slovaques ont-ils fait le bon choix ?

Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia 2023

Read the briefing by Daniel Martínek here:

The whole discussion will be available on the YouTube channel of the IDM:

 

Wieder keine ungarische Partei im slowakischen Parlament?

Bei den Wahlen in der Slowakei Ende September hat keine der antretenden Parteien der ungarischen Minderheit eine Chance, in das Parlament einzuziehen. Warum wird die ungarische Minderheit keine Vertretung im neuen slowakischen Parlament haben?

Unser Kollege Péter Techet über die Nachbarländer Österreichs:

Eastblog

DerStandard