Shaping the future of EU enlargement: project concludes with final event in Budapest

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The concluding event of the project ‘Central Europe and Future EU Enlargement‘ took place from 10–11 March in Budapest.

During a roundtable discussion with an extended consortium on the premises of the Central European University, partners shared best practices and talked about how to continue the cooperation beyond the scope of the project.

The final presentation of results and panel discussion was part of the Budapest Balkans Forum, which was organised by our project partner the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Research Associate Rebecca Thorne gave an overview of the project activities and highlighted some recommendations from the policy papers, before the panellists took the stage for a discussion on enlargement momentum. The panel featured Krševan Antun Dujmović, expert advisor at the Institute for Development and International Relations; Filip Ilankovic, Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs; Stevan Kandic, Advisor to the Vice-President of the Parliament of Montenegro; and Grigorij Meseznikov, President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO). The discussion was moderated by IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer.

Thank you to the International Visegrad Fund for their support as well as to all partners for the excellent cooperation: Association for International Affairs (Czechia), Europeum (Czechia), Institute of Public Affairs (Poland), Institute for Public Affairs (Slovakia), Albanian Network for Rural Development, Institute for European Policies and Reforms (Moldova), European Policy Centre (Serbia), Ukrainian Institute for International Politics, Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism’.

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Sebastian Schäffer for Fair Observer on the Question of Moldovan Reunification with Romania

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Between Putin and Brussels: Moldova Weighs the Unthinkable

In a recent Fair Observer analysis, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer examines why the idea of Moldovan reunification with Romania has re-entered public debate. President Maia Sandu’s statement that she would personally vote for reunification is interpreted not as a policy shift, but as a signal of growing strategic anxiety in Chișinău amid sustained Russian pressure and an increasingly fragile regional security environment.

The article argues that reunification remains politically sensitive and legally complex. While cultural and historical ties between Moldova and Romania are strong, public support in Moldova remains limited, and enthusiasm in Romania is constrained by financial, political and security considerations. As Schäffer notes, reunification functions less as a concrete political project than as a reflection of Moldova’s vulnerability.

At the same time, the analysis situates the debate firmly within Moldova’s European trajectory. EU accession remains the country’s primary strategic objective and the most realistic path toward long-term stability, reform and democratic consolidation. The renewed discussion of reunification ultimately highlights Europe’s broader challenge in offering credible security and integration pathways to exposed democracies on its eastern flank.

The full article is available here. 

IDM Director for AzerNews: Moldova’s unification debate reflects security-driven realism, not imminent merger

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Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), offers a nuanced analysis of Moldova’s unfolding debate on potential reunification with Romania in a new piece for AzerNews. What was once framed largely in historical or cultural terms has shifted into a security calculus under intensifying geopolitical pressure.  

President Maia Sandu’s recent statement that she would vote in favour of unification in a hypothetical referendum is notable not for its immediacy but for its reframing of reunification as a possible contingency response to Russian pressure. Even so, broad public support on both sides of the Prut remains below levels necessary for a binding referendum, and Moldova’s strategictrajectory continues to prioritise EU integration as a sovereign state.  

A core structural constraint is the unresolved frozen conflict in Transnistria. Because NATO customarily avoids incorporating unresolved territorial disputes involving Russian forces, any formal merger would likely require Transnistria’s legal exclusion, complicating both legal and political feasibility. In this context, Schäffer highlights the growing relevance of the EU’s mutual assistanceclause under Article 42(7) as a credible security backstop, even as NATO’s collective defence framework remains central to broader European security discussions.  

Schäffer also notes the political and legal complexities of territorial arrangements, the incentives sustaining the status quo in the Transnistrian economy, and the ways Moscow is likely tointerpret unification as a political setback rather than a direct casus belli, with hybrid pressure remaining the most plausible tool of influence.  

Ultimately, while the renewed unification debate signals a shift in strategic thinking, it does not suggest that political conditions for a merger are in place. Moldova’s focus remains on strengthening its sovereignty through EU integration and navigating a challenging security environment. 

The full analysis is available on AzerNews 

Europas Zukunft: IDM-Direktor Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger-Podcast

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Sebastian Schäffer, Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM), spricht in einem aktuellen Podcast mit Gunther Fehlinger über zentrale Herausforderungen und Perspektiven für Europas Zukunft in einem komplexen geopolitischen Umfeld. Das Gespräch richtet sich an ein breites Publikum, das sich für die Entwicklung der Europäischen Union, die EU-Erweiterung und regionale Stabilität interessiert. 

Schäffer betont die Bedeutung strategischer Partnerschaften innerhalb Europas und mit den östlichen Nachbarstaaten und analysiert aktuelle Fragen der EU- und NATO-Erweiterung, institutionelle Reformen sowie die Rolle des Donauraums als Brückenkopf zwischen West und Ost. Dabei diskutiert er, welche strukturellen Anpassungen die Union braucht, um langfristig Stabilität, demokratische Resilienz und nachhaltiges Wachstum zu sichern. 

Auf Basis seiner langjährigen Expertise zur europäischen Integration, EU-Erweiterung und zur politischen Dynamik im Donauraum ordnet Schäffer aktuelle Entwicklungen vor dem Hintergrund globaler Machtverschiebungen ein. Er zeigt, warum eine glaubwürdige Erweiterungsperspektive für Ukraine, Republik Moldau und den Westbalkan sowie mehr strategische Kohärenz entscheidend für die Zukunftsfähigkeit Europas sind 

Zum Anhören und Anschauen: 

▶️ YouTube: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer Direktor des Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM) 
🎧 Spotify: Europas Zukunft – Sebastian Schäffer im Gunther Fehlinger Podcast 

IDM Director discusses Moldova’s EU integration with parliamentary delegation 

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IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer met with Marcel Spatari, Chair of the Committee on European Integration, and Marina Morozova, Chair of the Friendship Group with Austria and Vice Chair of the Committee on Social Protection, Health, and Family. The meeting, facilitated by the Austrian Parlamentsdirektion and coordinated by Katharina Stourzh, was part of a study visit of the Moldovan Parliament to Vienna. 

The discussion focused on Moldova’s progress and the remaining challenges in the EU accession process, including legislative alignment, institutional resilience, and the broader political environment in the region. Both sides emphasised that Moldova’s path toward the EU requires strong cooperation across borders and sectors. 

As Schäffer underlined, the IDM has long been a friend of Moldova. The country needs reliable partners on its European journey, and this includes think tanks, decision-makers, and civil society working together for the benefit of the population. Preparing EU member states for the implications of enlargement is equally important to ensure a sustainable and credible accession process. 

The meeting reaffirmed Moldova’s strategic relevance for the stability and democratic development of Central and Eastern Europe and highlighted IDM’s ongoing commitment to supporting EU integration efforts across the region. 

Malwina Talik participates in a DGAP/IPRE colloquium on hybrid threats in Moldova

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As part of the fellowship on hybrid threats by the German Association for Foreign Policy (DGAP) and Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), Malwina Talik participated in the workshop “Hybrid Threats and Authoritarian Interference in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood” held in Chisinau, Moldova, from 5 to 7 October. The workshop brought together practitioners, think tank experts, academics, and representatives of Moldova’s public institutions to exchange best practices and lessons learned. 

Sebastian Schäffer for Caucasian Journal on the role of EU integration in preserving democracy and freedom

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In an interview for Caucasian Journal, Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the IDM, enhances the importance of European integration for preserving freedom and democracy, both in candidate countries and in Member States. The discussion addressed the European Union’s perception of the Caucasus region, particularly Georgia, which obtained official EU candidate status in 2023 but has since experienced a slowdown in its accession process. The loss of this momentum results from the internal situation, including political instability and foreign interference, and from the stance of Member States which are not unaware to their cultural ties with Georgia and are blocking progress.

While in Moldova on the day of the parliamentary elections, Sebastian Schäffer shared his insights on the country’s prospects with the European Union. Although this country has made significant progress towards accession in recent years, it remains subject to considerable Russian meddling, as was particularly evident in the last elections in September 2025.

Regarding the future of the EU, Schäffer concludes by emphasising that democratic achievements, even within the member states, should never be taken for granted – if they are not actively safeguarded, they risk being lost.

You can find the full interview here: Sebastian SCHÄFFER: “The best way to preserve freedom is European integration” – YouTube

Sebastian Schäffer for Fair Observer on Moldova’s future path towards the EU

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In a recent interview for Fair Observer, Sebastian Schäffer, IDM Director, discussed the significance of the latest parliamentary elections in Moldova, where the pro-European PAS party came out on top with an absolute majority. After these elections, one key question remains: Will Moldova join the EU?

While the victory of PAS seems promising for Moldova’s path toward the European Union, Schäffer points out that many obstacles remain.  The country is particularly marked by a polarisation between pro-Eastern and pro-Western factions, a division inherited from its past in the USSR. He emphasized the role of Transnistria, a region with its own identity, closely tied to Russia both culturally and economically, and which therefore serves as a strategic foothold for Russian meddling. Moreover, this issue is even more pronounced in Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova where the Patriotic Bloc won 80% of the vote in the September parliamentary elections.

Moldova must therefore continue to take action to preserve democracy by combating disinformation, corruption and foreign interference. Finally, Schäffer stresses that some Member States do not seem willing to accept new members, and the ratification stage by the 27 could be an obstacle in the future.

You can find the full interview here: Moldova’s Pro-EU Party Wins Pivotal Election: Turning Point or Trouble Ahead? | FO° Talks – YouTube

Diskussion mit Abgeordnetem David Stögmüller: Moldau nach den Wahlen

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Nach den Wahlen in Moldau: Ist die EU bereit für neue Mitgliedstaaten?

Austausch mit Nationalratsabgeordnetem David Stögmüller im IDM

Im Rahmen einer internen Veranstaltung für IDM-Mitglieder wurden die Ergebnisse der jüngsten Parlamentswahlen in der Republik Moldau analysiert. Im Fokus standen die Auswirkungen auf den EU-Beitrittsprozess und die Frage, wie aufnahmebereit die Europäische Union derzeit für neue Mitgliedstaaten ist.

Zu Gast war Nationalratsabgeordneter David Stögmüller (Die Grünen), Vorsitzender der Bilateralen Parlamentarischen Gruppe Bulgarien, Rumänien, Moldau im österreichischen Nationalrat. In einem offenen Austausch gab er Einblicke in seine parlamentarische Arbeit mit der Region und betonte die Bedeutung bilateraler Formate für gegenseitiges Verständnis und eine vertiefte europäische Integration.

IDM-Direktor Sebastian Schäffer und Rebecca Thorne präsentierten Eindrücke ihrer jüngsten Reise nach Moldau sowie eine Wahlanalyse, die zentrale Trends, parteipolitische Verschiebungen und mögliche Implikationen für den Integrationsprozess beleuchtete.

IDM-Mitglieder erhalten im Rahmen solcher Closed-Door-Events exklusive Einblicke in aktuelle politische Entwicklungen in der erweiterten Donauregion.

Exchange with Ambassador Avallone and Dr. Triebel in Moldova

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Twenty-four hours after it became clear that PAS had achieved an absolute majority in the Moldovan parliamentary election, IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer and Research Associate Rebecca Thorne had the opportunity to discuss the results with the Austrian Ambassador Stella Avallone and Dr. Brigitta Triebel, Head of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Moldova.

How come Russia suffered a defeat despite investing so much money in trying to subvert the elections and what can Europe learn from this? Given the unexpected success of the Democracy at Home party in winning 6 seats, to what extent is unification between Moldova and Romania a topic of discussion in the two neighbouring countries? What challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the next parliamentary term of office?

We are grateful for the opportunity to discuss these and other questions with Ambassador Avallone and Dr. Triebel during our visit to Moldova.